Obsidian Energy Stock Forecast

Hold candidate since Nov 14, 2025 Loss -3.35%

The Obsidian Energy Ltd stock price fell by -3.35% on the last day (Monday, 17th Nov 2025) from $6.27 to $6.06. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 4.63% from a day low at $6.05 to a day high of $6.33. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 6.69% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -53 thousand shares and in total, 219 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.32 million.

The stock is moving within a wide and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Obsidian Energy Ltd stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $5.43 and $6.73 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stock seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stock turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

OBE Signals & Forecast

Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Obsidian Energy Ltd stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $6.11 and $6.09. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, November 11, 2025, and so far it has fallen -3.81%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell along with the price during the last trading day, which is technical positive. One should, however, note that this stock may have low liquidity in periods, which increases the general risk.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Obsidian Energy Ltd stock

Obsidian Energy Ltd finds support from accumulated volume at $5.95 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock has average movements during the day, but be aware of low or falling volume as this increases the risk. During the last day, the stock moved $0.280 between high and low, or 4.63%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 4.37%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $5.75 (-5.16%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 4 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (OBE) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 18th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 18th we expect Obsidian Energy Ltd to open at $6.15, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $5.93 and $6.19, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.259 (+/-4.36%) up or down from last closing price. If Obsidian Energy Ltd takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.36% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $5.95 (1.82%) than the resistance at $6.17 (1.82%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Is Obsidian Energy Ltd stock A Buy?

Obsidian Energy Ltd holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.

Current score: -0.702 Hold/Accumulate Unchanged

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on November 18, 2025 - $6.15 ( 1.43%).

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