Oil Country Tubular Limited Stock Forecast
Oil Country Tubular Limited stock downgraded to Buy Candidate
(Updated on Apr 26, 2024)
The Oil Country Tubular Limited stock price fell by -1.92% on the last day (Friday, 26th Apr 2024) from ₹46.80 to ₹45.90. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 0.327% from a day low at ₹45.90 to a day high of ₹46.05. The price has risen in 9 of the last 10 days and is up by 14.89% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -2 thousand shares and in total, 8 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately ₹381.15 thousand.
The stock lies the upper part of a very wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at ₹46.64 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -17.50% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between ₹19.20 and ₹38.48 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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OILCOUNTUB.NS Signals & Forecast
The Oil Country Tubular Limited stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at ₹44.82 and ₹37.54. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, April 25, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.92%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell along with the price during the last trading day, which is technical positive. One should, however, note that this stock may have low liquidity in periods, which increases the general risk.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Oil Country Tubular Limited stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at ₹43.40 and ₹42.55. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Oil Country Tubular Limited finds support just below today's level at ₹43.40. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at ₹42.55 and ₹35.45.
This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with periodic low trading volume this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved ₹0.150 between high and low, or 0.327%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 0.109%.
The Oil Country Tubular Limited stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stop-loss: ₹44.10 (-3.93%) (This stock has high daily movements and this gives high risk. The RSI14 is 90 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 1 day ago.)
Trading Expectations (OILCOUNTUB.NS) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 29th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 29th we expect Oil Country Tubular Limited to open at ₹45.95, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between ₹44.93 and ₹46.87, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-₹0.97 (+/-2.11%) up or down from last closing price. If Oil Country Tubular Limited takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.21% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at ₹45.95 (0.11%) than the support at ₹43.40 (5.45%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Oil Country Tubular Limited stock A Buy?
Several short-term signals are positive, despite the stock being in a falling trend, we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for stock to perform well in the short-term. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Strong Buy to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 2.075 Buy Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Oil Country Tubular Limited of Monday, April 29, 2024
| Fair opening price April 29, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| ₹45.95 ( 0.109%) | ₹45.90 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for OILCOUNTUB.NS
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 46.10 | 0.436 % | |
| R2 | 46.04 | 0.311 % | ||
| R1 | 46.01 | 0.234 % | ||
| Current price: | 45.90 | |||
| Support | S1 | 45.89 | -0.0159 % | |
| S2 | 45.86 | -0.0930 % | ||
| S3 | 45.80 | -0.218 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 56.25 | 22.55 % | |
| R2 | 53.00 | 15.47 % | ||
| R1 | 45.95 | 0.109 % | ||
| Current price | 45.90 | |||
| Support | S1 | 43.40 | -5.45% | |
| S2 | 42.55 | -7.30% | ||
| S3 | 35.45 | -22.77% |
OILCOUNTUB Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apr 24, 2014 | May 29, 2014 | Jul 05, 2014 | ₹2.00 | 3.06% |
| 2 | Apr 25, 2013 | May 23, 2013 | Jun 30, 2013 | ₹2.00 | 5.10% |
| 3 | Apr 26, 2012 | May 24, 2012 | Jun 30, 2012 | ₹2.00 | 3.95% |
| 4 | Apr 28, 2011 | May 19, 2011 | Jun 27, 2011 | ₹2.00 | 2.78% |
| 5 | Apr 27, 2010 | May 20, 2010 | Jun 26, 2010 | ₹2.00 | 1.89% |
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