O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Weaker technical forecast for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. as stock downgraded to Sell Candidate.
(Updated on May 01, 2024)
The O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. stock price fell by -0.80% on the last day (Wednesday, 1st May 2024) from $1,013.26 to $1,005.11. It has now fallen 5 days in a row. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.36% from a day low at $1,004.19 to a day high of $1,017.84. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -8.19% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 78 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 606 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $609.33 million.
Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 3.13% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $1,036.53 and $1,220.40 at the end of this 3-month period.
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ORLY Signals & Forecast
Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $1,048.36 and $1,101.25. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, March 22, 2024, and so far it has fallen -13.91%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. stock
There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the stock may perform very badly in the next couple of days.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $13.65 between high and low, or 1.36%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.58%.
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. is oversold on RSI14 (23). Some stocks may drop long and hard while being oversold on RSI before turning, which increases the general risk.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (ORLY) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 2nd
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 2nd we expect O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. to open at $1,009.05, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $982.89 and $1,027.33, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$22.22 (+/-2.21%) up or down from last closing price. If O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.42% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
With no support below and resistance from accumulated volume @ $1,020.83, some $15.72 (1.56%) from the current price of $1,005.11, our system finds the risk reward not very attractive.
Is O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. stock A Buy?
The O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. stock holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -2.225 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. of Thursday, May 2, 2024
| Fair opening price May 2, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $1,009.05 ( 0.391%) | $1,005.11 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for ORLY
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 1,022.69 | 1.75 % | |
| R2 | 1,017.48 | 1.23 % | ||
| R1 | 1,014.26 | 0.91 % | ||
| Current price: | 1,005.11 | |||
| Support | S1 | 1,003.83 | -0.127 % | |
| S2 | 1,000.61 | -0.447 % | ||
| S3 | 995.40 | -0.97 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 1,067.02 | 6.16 % | |
| R2 | 1,054.13 | 4.88 % | ||
| R1 | 1,020.83 | 1.56 % | ||
| Current price | 1,005.11 | |||
| Support | S1 | 0 | . | |
| S2 | 0 | . | ||
| S3 | 0 | . |
FAQ
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