POWERSHARES EMERGING MARKETS SOVEREIGN ETF Forecast
POWERSHARES EMERGING MARKETS SOVEREIGN ETF downgraded to Sell Candidate
(Updated on Jun 28, 2024)
The POWERSHARES EMERGING MARKETS SOVEREIGN ETF price fell by -1.19% on the last day (Friday, 28th Jun 2024) from $20.24 to $20.00. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.55% from a day low at $19.99 to a day high of $20.30. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -2.15% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 513 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 947 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $18.93 million.
The ETF is at the lower part of a narrow and horizontal trend in the short term, and normally this may pose a good buying opportunity, though a breakdown through the bottom trend line at $19.87 will give a strong sell signal and a trend shift may be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect POWERSHARES EMERGING MARKETS SOVEREIGN ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $20.19 and $21.06 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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PCY Signals & Forecast
Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The POWERSHARES EMERGING MARKETS SOVEREIGN ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $20.26 and $20.30. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, June 18, 2024, and so far it has fallen -2.39%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.
A sell signal from a double top formation was found on Tuesday, June 18, 2024 and based on theory for this formation the price should fall by -1.45% to $19.71 within 23 trading days since signal was issued (Tuesday, July 23, 2024).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for POWERSHARES EMERGING MARKETS SOVEREIGN ETF
POWERSHARES EMERGING MARKETS SOVEREIGN finds support from accumulated volume at $19.94 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.310 between high and low, or 1.55%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.610%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (PCY) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 1st
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 1st we expect POWERSHARES EMERGING MARKETS SOVEREIGN DEBT PORTFOLIO to open at $20.10, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $19.85 and $20.15, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.151 (+/-0.76%) up or down from last closing price. If POWERSHARES EMERGING MARKETS SOVEREIGN DEBT PORTFOLIO takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.51% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $19.94 (0.30%) than the resistance at $20.23 (1.15%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is POWERSHARES EMERGING MARKETS SOVEREIGN DEBT PORTFOLIO ETF A Buy?
POWERSHARES EMERGING MARKETS SOVEREIGN holds several negative signals and is within a narrow and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -1.334 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for POWERSHARES EMERGING MARKETS SOVEREIGN DEBT PORTFOLIO of Monday, July 1, 2024
| Fair opening price July 1, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $20.10 ( 0.483%) | $20.00 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for PCY
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 20.41 | 2.03% |
| R2 | 20.29 | 1.44% |
| R1 | 20.22 | 1.08% |
| Price | 20.00 | |
| S1 | 19.98 | -0.109% |
| S2 | 19.91 | -0.475% |
| S3 | 19.79 | -1.07% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 20.39 | 1.95% |
| R2 | 20.31 | 1.55% |
| R1 | 20.23 | 1.15% |
| Price | 20.00 | |
| S1 | 19.94 | -0.300% |
| S2 | 19.80 | -1.00% |
| S3 | 19.71 | -1.45% |
PCY Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan 05, 2024 | May 20, 2024 | May 24, 2024 | $0.110 | 0.541% |
| 2 | Jan 05, 2024 | Apr 22, 2024 | Apr 26, 2024 | $0.107 | 0.544% |
| 3 | Mar 18, 2024 | Mar 18, 2024 | Mar 22, 2024 | $0.114 | 0.554% |
| 4 | Jan 05, 2024 | Feb 20, 2024 | Feb 23, 2024 | $0.108 | 0.539% |
| 5 | Jan 05, 2024 | Jan 22, 2024 | Jan 26, 2024 | $0.110 | 0.551% |
FAQ
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