Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Weaker technical forecast for Invesco Golden Dragon China as ETF downgraded to Hold/Accumulate.
(Updated on May 03, 2024)
The Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF price gained 1.70% on the last trading day (Friday, 3rd May 2024), rising from $26.54 to $26.99. It has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.67% from a day low at $26.59 to a day high of $27.04. The price has risen in 9 of the last 10 days and is up by 14.66% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 117 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 204 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $5.50 million.
The ETF has broken the wide and weak rising the short-term trend up and an even stronger rate of rising is indicated. For any reaction back there will now be support on the roof on the current trend broken at $26.85, a level that may pose a second chance to hit a runner. According to fan-theory $29.97 will be the next possible trend-top level and thereby pose a resistance level that may not be broken at the first attempt.
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PGJ Signals & Forecast
The Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $25.70 and $24.87. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, April 19, 2024, and so far it has risen 14.66%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF
On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $25.60 and $24.33. There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Invesco Golden Dragon China finds support just below today's level at $25.60. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $24.33 and $23.54.
This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.445 between high and low, or 1.67%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 2.16%.
The Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF is extremely overbought on RSI14 (77). Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but since the ETF has broken the trend up, the chance for a major correction due to high RSI is very small as the ETF will find support at the trend broken.
Our recommended stop-loss: $26.06 (-3.46%) (This ETF has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 77 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 10 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (PGJ) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 6th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 6th we expect Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF to open at $26.87, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $26.41 and $27.57, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.577 (+/-2.14%) up or down from last closing price. If Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.27% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
With no resistance above and support from accumulated volume @ $25.60, some $1.39 (5.15%) from the current price of $26.99, our system finds the risk reward attractive.
Is Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF ETF A Buy?
Invesco Golden Dragon China holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Strong Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.000 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Zero in score indicates that our system is expecting high volatility and risk for the following trading day. Given the latest developments, we cannot determine the next direction as it may go both ways.
Predicted Opening Price for Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF of Monday, May 6, 2024
| Fair opening price May 6, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $26.87 ( 0.426%) | $26.99 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for PGJ
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 27.32 | 1.22 % | |
| R2 | 27.15 | 0.593 % | ||
| R1 | 27.04 | 0.204 % | ||
| Current price: | 26.99 | |||
| Support | S1 | 26.70 | -1.06 % | |
| S2 | 26.60 | -1.45 % | ||
| S3 | 26.43 | -2.08 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 0 | . | |
| R2 | 0 | . | ||
| R1 | 0 | . | ||
| Current price | 26.99 | |||
| Support | S1 | 25.60 | -5.15% | |
| S2 | 24.33 | -9.86% | ||
| S3 | 23.54 | -12.78% |
PGJ Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | $0.396 | 1.59% |
| 2 | Sep 18, 2023 | Sep 18, 2023 | Sep 22, 2023 | $0.144 | 0.534% |
| 3 | Sep 08, 2023 | Jun 20, 2023 | Jun 23, 2023 | $0.0880 | 0.335% |
| 4 | Jun 19, 2023 | Mar 20, 2023 | Mar 24, 2023 | $0.0230 | 0.0811% |
| 5 | Dec 16, 2022 | Dec 19, 2022 | Dec 23, 2022 | $0.0830 | 0.303% |
FAQ
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