PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust stock downgraded from Hold/Accumulate to Sell Candidate after Friday trading session.
(Updated on Apr 26, 2024)
The PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust stock price fell by -0.283% on the last day (Friday, 26th Apr 2024) from $14.14 to $14.10. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.08% from a day low at $13.97 to a day high of $14.26. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 4.06% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -457 thousand shares and in total, 626 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $8.83 million.
The stock is moving within a wide and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $13.13 and $14.63 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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PMT Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, April 17, 2024, and so far it has risen 6.58%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust stock holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $14.12. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $13.77. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
A buy signal from a double bottom formation was found on Wednesday, April 17, 2024 and based on theory for this formation the price should go up by 11.57% to $15.73 within 44 trading days since signal was issued (Monday, April 29, 2024).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust stock
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust finds support from accumulated volume at $13.96 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $0.290 between high and low, or 2.08%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.36%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (PMT) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 29th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 29th we expect PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust to open at $14.11, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $13.80 and $14.40, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.300 (+/-2.13%) up or down from last closing price. If PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.25% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $14.14 (0.28%) than the support at $13.96 (0.99%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust stock A Buy?
PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -3.669 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust of Monday, April 29, 2024
| Fair opening price April 29, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $14.11 ( 0.0709%) | $14.10 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for PMT
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 14.40 | 2.13 % | |
| R2 | 14.29 | 1.34 % | ||
| R1 | 14.22 | 0.86 % | ||
| Current price: | 14.10 | |||
| Support | S1 | 14.00 | -0.715 % | |
| S2 | 13.93 | -1.20 % | ||
| S3 | 13.82 | -1.99 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 14.34 | 1.70 % | |
| R2 | 14.28 | 1.28 % | ||
| R1 | 14.14 | 0.284 % | ||
| Current price | 14.10 | |||
| Support | S1 | 13.96 | -0.99% | |
| S2 | 13.78 | -2.27% | ||
| S3 | 13.55 | -3.90% |
PMT Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 21, 2024 | Apr 11, 2024 | Apr 26, 2024 | $0.400 | 2.84% |
| 2 | Dec 28, 2023 | Dec 28, 2023 | Jan 26, 2024 | $0.400 | 2.67% |
| 3 | Aug 31, 2023 | Oct 12, 2023 | Oct 27, 2023 | $0.400 | 3.26% |
| 4 | Jun 09, 2023 | Jul 13, 2023 | Jul 28, 2023 | $0.400 | 3.09% |
| 5 | Mar 15, 2023 | Apr 13, 2023 | Apr 28, 2023 | $0.400 | 3.22% |
FAQ
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