Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF upgraded to Buy Candidate.
(Updated on May 07, 2024)
The Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF price fell by -0.307% on the last day (Tuesday, 7th May 2024) from $104.20 to $103.88. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.463% from a day low at $103.61 to a day high of $104.09. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.41% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -54 thousand shares and in total, 168 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $17.41 million.
The ETF lies in the upper part of a narrow and weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $104.31 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 6.91% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $106.43 and $111.52 at the end of this 3-month period.
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PPA Signals & Forecast
The Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $102.53 and $100.48. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, May 06, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.307%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF
Invesco Aerospace & Defense finds support from accumulated volume at $100.35 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.480 between high and low, or 0.463%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.94%.
The Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some ETFS may go long and hard while being overbought and the RSI is still moving upwards. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely, and it is of great importance that the ETF manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stop-loss: $100.21 (-3.54%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. The RSI14 is 79 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 1 day ago.)
Trading Expectations (PPA) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 8th
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 8th we expect Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF to open at $103.86, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $102.71 and $105.05, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.17 (+/-1.13%) up or down from last closing price. If Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.26% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $104.20 (0.31%) than the support at $100.35 (3.40%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF ETF A Buy?
Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF to perform well in the short-term. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 1.955 Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Invesco Aerospace & Defense ETF of Wednesday, May 8, 2024
| Fair opening price May 8, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $103.86 ( 0.0193%) | $103.88 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for PPA
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 104.34 | 0.443 % | |
| R2 | 104.16 | 0.266 % | ||
| R1 | 104.04 | 0.157 % | ||
| Current price: | 103.88 | |||
| Support | S1 | 103.68 | -0.196 % | |
| S2 | 103.56 | -0.305 % | ||
| S3 | 103.38 | -0.481 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 0 | . | |
| R2 | 0 | . | ||
| R1 | 104.20 | 0.308 % | ||
| Current price | 103.88 | |||
| Support | S1 | 100.35 | -3.40% | |
| S2 | 99.87 | -3.86% | ||
| S3 | 99.00 | -4.70% |
PPA Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan 05, 2024 | Mar 18, 2024 | Mar 22, 2024 | $0.114 | 0.114% |
| 2 | Jan 02, 2023 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | $0.266 | 0.290% |
| 3 | Jan 02, 2023 | Sep 18, 2023 | Sep 22, 2023 | $0.117 | 0.147% |
| 4 | Jan 02, 2023 | Jun 20, 2023 | Jun 23, 2023 | $0.127 | 0.155% |
| 5 | Jan 02, 2023 | Mar 20, 2023 | Mar 24, 2023 | $0.108 | 0.138% |
FAQ
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