Provident Financial Holdings Stock Forecast

Sell candidate since Nov 17, 2025

The Provident Financial Holdings stock price fell by -3.16% on the last day (Monday, 17th Nov 2025) from $15.50 to $15.01. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 4.17% from a day low at $15.01 to a day high of $15.64. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -3.35% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 451 shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 5 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $77.72 thousand.

Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Provident Financial Holdings stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $15.14 and $16.21 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stock seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stock turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

PROV Signals & Forecast

There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Provident Financial Holdings stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $15.35 and $15.63. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, September 26, 2025, and so far it has fallen -6.19%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Provident Financial Holdings gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs". The very low volume increases the risk and reduces the other technical signals issued.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Provident Financial Holdings stock

There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the stock may perform very badly in the next couple of days.

In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $0.625 between high and low, or 4.17%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.59%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (PROV) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 18th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 18th we expect Provident Financial Holdings to open at $15.22, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $14.85 and $15.17, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.327 (+/-2.20%) up or down from last closing price. If Provident Financial Holdings takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.20% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

With no support below and resistance from accumulated volume @ $15.56, some $0.550 (3.66%) from the current price of $15.01, our system finds the risk reward not very attractive.

Is Provident Financial Holdings stock A Buy?

Provident Financial Holdings holds several negative signals and is within a falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold to a Sell candidate.

Current score: -1.593 Sell Candidate Downgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on November 18, 2025 - $15.22 ( 1.39%).

Want to trade but not sure how? Our step-by-step guide can help.
Skip the guide? Open account with our trusted broker*
*Your capital is at risk