First Trust Nasdaq-100 Equal Weighted Index Fund ETF Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since May 27, 2025 Gain 0.63%

The First Trust NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted ETF price fell by -0.144% on the last day (Wednesday, 18th Jun 2025) from $132.19 to $132.00. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.88% from a day low at $131.75 to a day high of $132.91. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -0.41% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 21 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 49 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $6.51 million.

The ETF lies in the middle of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 15.26% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $139.23 and $156.50 at the end of this 3-month period.

QQEW Signals & Forecast

A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, June 10, 2025, and so far it has fallen -1.54%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely. Some positive signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The First Trust NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the ETF. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $133.07. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $129.86. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for First Trust NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted ETF

On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $118.41 and $116.66. There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, First Trust NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted finds support just below today's level at $118.41. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $116.66 and $109.17.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $1.16 between high and low, or 0.88%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.89%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $127.68 (-3.27%) (This ETF has very low daily movements and this gives very low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 6 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (QQEW) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 20th

For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 20th we expect First Trust NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index Fund to open at $132.22, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $130.21 and $133.79, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.79 (+/-1.36%) up or down from last closing price. If First Trust NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.72% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $132.31 (0.23%) than the support at $118.41 (10.30%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is First Trust NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index Fund ETF A Buy?

Several of the signals/indicators are negative, and we believe that this will affect on the development for the next days and maybe possible weeks. However, over time, we think that today's level holds a possible buying opportunity and that the price will be higher during or at the end of this 3-month period. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy candidate.

Current score: 2.191 Buy Candidate Upgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on June 20, 2025 - $132.22 ( 0.164%).

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