Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical. Stock Forecast

Sell candidate since Jun 20, 2025

The Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. stock price fell by -0.562% on the last day (Friday, 20th Jun 2025) from $37.35 to $37.14. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.81% from a day low at $36.45 to a day high of $37.48. The price has fallen in 5 of the last 10 days but is still up by 0.62% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 134 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 1 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $40.31 million.

The stock is moving within a very wide and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $32.23 and $40.42 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stock seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stock turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

RARE Signals & Forecast

The Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $37.51. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $36.35. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, June 12, 2025, and so far it has fallen -5.47%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. stock

On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $34.35 and $33.91. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. finds support just below today's level at $34.35. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $33.91 and $33.16.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $1.03 between high and low, or 2.81%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.52%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (RARE) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 23rd

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 23rd we expect Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. to open at $37.02, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $35.69 and $38.59, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.45 (+/-3.92%) up or down from last closing price. If Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 7.83% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $37.35 (0.57%) than the support at $34.35 (7.51%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. stock A Buy?

Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.

Current score: -1.220 Sell Candidate Downgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on June 23, 2025 - $37.02 ( 0.319%).

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