Radian Group Inc Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Radian Group Inc stock downgraded to Sell Candidate
(Updated on Jun 25, 2024)
The Radian Group Inc stock price fell by -1.50% on the last day (Tuesday, 25th Jun 2024) from $31.41 to $30.94. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.51% from a day low at $30.88 to a day high of $31.35. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 1.98% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -221 thousand shares and in total, 433 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $13.38 million.
The stock is moving within a wide and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Radian Group Inc stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $28.25 and $31.10 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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RDN Signals & Forecast
There are mixed signals in the stock today. The Radian Group Inc stock holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $31.05. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $30.75. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, June 03, 2024, and so far it has fallen -2.95%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Radian Group Inc stock
Radian Group Inc finds support from accumulated volume at $30.31 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $0.467 between high and low, or 1.51%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.58%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (RDN) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 26th
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 26th we expect Radian Group Inc to open at $31.06, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $30.32 and $31.56, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.624 (+/-2.02%) up or down from last closing price. If Radian Group Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.03% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $30.96 (0.06%) than the support at $30.31 (2.04%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Radian Group Inc stock A Buy?
Radian Group Inc holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -3.260 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Radian Group Inc of Wednesday, June 26, 2024
| Fair opening price June 26, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $31.06 ( 0.374%) | $30.94 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for RDN
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 31.52 | 1.88% |
| R2 | 31.34 | 1.31% |
| R1 | 31.23 | 0.95% |
| Price | 30.94 | |
| S1 | 30.88 | -0.203% |
| S2 | 30.77 | -0.559% |
| S3 | 30.59 | -1.14% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 31.34 | 1.29% |
| R2 | 31.13 | 0.614% |
| R1 | 30.96 | 0.0646% |
| Price | 30.94 | |
| S1 | 30.31 | -2.04% |
| S2 | 30.29 | -2.10% |
| S3 | 29.29 | -5.33% |
RDN Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 04, 2024 | Jun 04, 2024 | Jun 20, 2024 | $0.245 | 0.792% |
| 2 | Feb 14, 2024 | Feb 23, 2024 | Mar 12, 2024 | $0.245 | 0.775% |
| 3 | Nov 15, 2023 | Nov 24, 2023 | Dec 12, 2023 | $0.225 | 0.86% |
| 4 | Aug 09, 2023 | Aug 18, 2023 | Sep 06, 2023 | $0.225 | 0.85% |
| 5 | May 17, 2023 | May 26, 2023 | Jun 14, 2023 | $0.225 | 0.90% |
FAQ
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