ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF Forecast
Green day on Friday for ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF after gaining 0.89%
(Updated on May 03, 2024)
The ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF price gained 0.89% on the last trading day (Friday, 3rd May 2024), rising from $16.80 to $16.95. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.77% from a day low at $16.70 to a day high of $17.00. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 6.4% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -459 thousand shares and in total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $38.99 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -18.35% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $11.50 and $13.84 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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SCO Signals & Forecast
The ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $16.16 and $15.79. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Monday, April 15, 2024, and so far it has risen 13.45%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF
On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $16.05 and $14.98. There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil finds support just below today's level at $16.05. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $14.98 and $14.95.
This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.295 between high and low, or 1.77%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 3.11%.
The ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some ETFS may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the ETF manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stop-loss: $16.39 (-3.29%) (This ETF has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 80 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 14 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (SCO) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 6th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 6th we expect ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil to open at $16.88, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $16.48 and $17.42, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.472 (+/-2.79%) up or down from last closing price. If ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.57% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $17.49 (3.19%) than the support at $16.05 (5.31%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF A Buy?
ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.
Current score: 0.000 Hold/Accumulate Unchanged
Zero in score indicates that our system is expecting high volatility and risk for the following trading day. Given the latest developments, we cannot determine the next direction as it may go both ways.
Predicted Opening Price for ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil of Monday, May 6, 2024
| Fair opening price May 6, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $16.88 ( 0.404%) | $16.95 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for SCO
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 17.18 | 1.34 % | |
| R2 | 17.06 | 0.673 % | ||
| R1 | 16.99 | 0.262 % | ||
| Current price: | 16.95 | |||
| Support | S1 | 16.77 | -1.07 % | |
| S2 | 16.70 | -1.48 % | ||
| S3 | 16.59 | -2.15 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 18.03 | 6.37 % | |
| R2 | 17.72 | 4.54 % | ||
| R1 | 17.49 | 3.19 % | ||
| Current price | 16.95 | |||
| Support | S1 | 16.05 | -5.31% | |
| S2 | 14.98 | -11.62% | ||
| S3 | 14.95 | -11.80% |
FAQ
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