ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Weaker technical forecast for ProShares UltraShort S&P500 as ETF downgraded to Sell Candidate.
(Updated on May 02, 2024)
The ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF price fell by -1.86% on the last day (Thursday, 2nd May 2024) from $27.41 to $26.90. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 2.57% from a day low at $26.81 to a day high of $27.50. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -1.86% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -6 million shares and in total, 13 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $344.34 million.
The ETF lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -3.27% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $23.67 and $26.86 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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SDS Signals & Forecast
The ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $26.89 and $26.08. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, April 19, 2024, and so far it has fallen -3.62%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF
ProShares UltraShort S&P500 finds support from accumulated volume at $25.90 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.690 between high and low, or 2.57%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 2.41%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (SDS) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 3rd
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 3rd we expect ProShares UltraShort S&P500 to open at $27.07, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $26.25 and $27.55, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.651 (+/-2.42%) up or down from last closing price. If ProShares UltraShort S&P500 takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.84% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $26.94 (0.15%) than the support at $25.90 (3.72%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is ProShares UltraShort S&P500 ETF A Buy?
ProShares UltraShort S&P500 holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this ETF. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -2.536 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for ProShares UltraShort S&P500 of Friday, May 3, 2024
| Fair opening price May 3, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $27.07 ( 0.632%) | $26.90 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for SDS
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 27.76 | 3.20 % | |
| R2 | 27.50 | 2.22 % | ||
| R1 | 27.33 | 1.61 % | ||
| Current price: | 26.90 | |||
| Support | S1 | 26.81 | -0.348 % | |
| S2 | 26.64 | -0.95 % | ||
| S3 | 26.38 | -1.93 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 27.91 | 3.75 % | |
| R2 | 27.41 | 1.90 % | ||
| R1 | 26.94 | 0.149 % | ||
| Current price | 26.90 | |||
| Support | S1 | 25.90 | -3.72% | |
| S2 | 25.80 | -4.09% | ||
| S3 | 25.37 | -5.69% |
SDS Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 20, 2024 | Mar 20, 2024 | Mar 27, 2024 | $0.344 | 1.38% |
| 2 | Dec 20, 2023 | Dec 20, 2023 | Dec 20, 2023 | $0.584 | 1.90% |
| 3 | Jan 23, 2023 | Sep 20, 2023 | Sep 27, 2023 | $0.493 | 1.32% |
| 4 | Jan 23, 2023 | Jun 21, 2023 | Jun 28, 2023 | $0.375 | 1.06% |
| 5 | Jan 23, 2023 | Mar 22, 2023 | Mar 29, 2023 | $0.274 | 0.660% |
FAQ
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