iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF downgraded from Buy Candidate to Hold/Accumulate after Friday trading session.
(Updated on May 03, 2024)
The iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF price fell by -0.415% on the last day (Friday, 3rd May 2024) from $75.82 to $75.50. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.88% from a day low at $75.24 to a day high of $75.91. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.72% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 176 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 387 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $29.19 million.
The ETF lies in the upper part of a wide and weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $75.84 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 2.26% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $69.20 and $77.56 at the end of this 3-month period.
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SMIN Signals & Forecast
The iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $75.59. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $72.43. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, May 02, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.415%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF
On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $69.68 and $68.53. There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, iShares MSCI India Small-Cap finds support just below today's level at $69.68. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $68.53 and $66.69.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.665 between high and low, or 0.88%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.80%.
The iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some ETFS may go long and hard while being overbought and the RSI is still moving upwards. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely, and it is of great importance that the ETF manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stop-loss: $73.60 (-2.52%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. The RSI14 is 82 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 1 day ago.)
Trading Expectations (SMIN) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 6th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 6th we expect iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF to open at $75.55, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $74.79 and $76.21, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.712 (+/-0.94%) up or down from last closing price. If iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.89% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $75.69 (0.25%) than the support at $69.68 (7.71%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF ETF A Buy?
iShares MSCI India Small-Cap holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.609 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for iShares MSCI India Small-Cap ETF of Monday, May 6, 2024
| Fair opening price May 6, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $75.55 ( 0.0640%) | $75.50 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for SMIN
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 76.21 | 0.94 % | |
| R2 | 75.96 | 0.608 % | ||
| R1 | 75.80 | 0.400 % | ||
| Current price: | 75.50 | |||
| Support | S1 | 75.29 | -0.272 % | |
| S2 | 75.14 | -0.480 % | ||
| S3 | 74.88 | -0.82 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 75.82 | 0.417 % | |
| R2 | 75.79 | 0.384 % | ||
| R1 | 75.69 | 0.252 % | ||
| Current price | 75.50 | |||
| Support | S1 | 69.68 | -7.71% | |
| S2 | 68.53 | -9.23% | ||
| S3 | 66.69 | -11.67% |
SMIN Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dec 20, 2023 | Dec 20, 2023 | Dec 20, 2023 | $0.244 | 0.364% |
| 2 | Jun 06, 2023 | Jun 07, 2023 | Jun 13, 2023 | $0.0430 | 0.0759% |
| 3 | Dec 12, 2022 | Dec 13, 2022 | Dec 19, 2022 | $0.0040 | 0.0075% |
| 4 | Dec 10, 2021 | Dec 13, 2021 | Dec 17, 2021 | $0.768 | 1.33% |
| 5 | Dec 11, 2020 | Dec 14, 2020 | Dec 18, 2020 | $0.0500 | 0.121% |
FAQ
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