Semtech Corporation Stock Forecast
Weaker technical forecast for Semtech Corporation as stock downgraded to Buy Candidate.
(Updated on May 02, 2024)
The Semtech Corporation stock price gained 2.76% on the last trading day (Thursday, 2nd May 2024), rising from $37.64 to $38.68. It has now gained 9 days in a row. It is not often that stocks manage to gain so many days in a row, and falls for a day or two should be expected. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 5.47% from a day low at $36.75 to a day high of $38.76. The price has risen in 9 of the last 10 days and is up by 20.69% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -361 thousand shares and in total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $72.35 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock lies in the upper part of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at $39.78 will firstly indicate a stronger rate of rising. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 95.67% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $66.37 and $77.85 at the end of this 3-month period.
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SMTC Signals & Forecast
The Semtech Corporation stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $36.48 and $30.48. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, April 19, 2024, and so far it has risen 24.57%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Semtech Corporation stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $33.06 and $32.64. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Semtech Corporation finds support just below today's level at $33.06. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $32.64 and $29.37.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $2.01 between high and low, or 5.47%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 5.77%.
The Semtech Corporation stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs. Since the Semtech Corporation has been rising for 9 days in a row, the risk over the next couple of days has increased. We don't expect a major reaction as the stock is in very good shape technically, and therefore hold a positive evaluation despite the very short term risk.
Our recommended stop-loss: $37.55 (-2.92%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. The RSI14 is 79 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 9 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (SMTC) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 3rd
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 3rd we expect Semtech Corporation to open at $38.06, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $36.74 and $40.62, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.94 (+/-5.01%) up or down from last closing price. If Semtech Corporation takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 10.02% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
With no resistance above and support from accumulated volume @ $33.06, some $5.62 (14.53%) from the current price of $38.68, our system finds the risk reward attractive.
Is Semtech Corporation stock A Buy?
Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for Semtech Corporation stock to perform well in the short-term. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Strong Buy to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 3.625 Buy Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Semtech Corporation of Friday, May 3, 2024
| Fair opening price May 3, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $38.06 ( 1.59%) | $38.68 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for SMTC
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 40.07 | 3.60 % | |
| R2 | 39.31 | 1.62 % | ||
| R1 | 38.83 | 0.391 % | ||
| Current price: | 38.68 | |||
| Support | S1 | 37.30 | -3.58 % | |
| S2 | 36.82 | -4.81 % | ||
| S3 | 36.05 | -6.79 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 0 | . | |
| R2 | 0 | . | ||
| R1 | 0 | . | ||
| Current price | 38.68 | |||
| Support | S1 | 33.06 | -14.53% | |
| S2 | 32.64 | -15.62% | ||
| S3 | 29.37 | -24.07% |
SMTC Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 05, 1980 | Sep 05, 1980 | Sep 05, 1980 | $0.0500 | 3.64% |
FAQ
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