SOXL ETF Forecast

Sell candidate since Feb 21, 2025 Loss -27.69%

The SOXL ETF price gained 5.00% on the last trading day (Monday, 17th Mar 2025), rising from $19.80 to $20.79. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 9.13% from a day low at $19.50 to a day high of $21.28. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 1.39% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -18 million shares and in total, 81 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.69 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The ETF lies in the middle of a very wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -26.01% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $12.37 and $21.26 at the end of this 3-month period.

SOXL Signals & Forecast

There are mixed signals in the ETF today. The SOXL ETF holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the ETF giving a more negative forecast for the ETF. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $24.66. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the short-term average at $19.04. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, March 11, 2025, and so far it has risen 19.41%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for SOXL ETF

On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $19.24 and $17.99. There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, SOXL finds support just below today's level at $19.24. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $17.99 and $17.41.

This ETF may move very much during the day (volatility) and with a very large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this ETF is considered to be "very high risk". During the last day, the ETF moved $1.78 between high and low, or 9.13%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 8.50%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (SOXL) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 18th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 18th we expect Direxion Daily Semicondct Bull 3X ETF to open at $20.52, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $18.45 and $23.13, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$2.34 (+/-11.26%) up or down from last closing price. If Direxion Daily Semicondct Bull 3X ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 22.51% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $20.88 (0.43%) than the support at $19.24 (7.46%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Direxion Daily Semicondct Bull 3X ETF ETF A Buy?

SOXL holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.

Current score: -4.728 Sell Candidate Unchanged

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Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on March 18, 2025 - $20.52 ( 1.28%).