Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Red day on Friday for Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares ETF after losing 0.246%
(Updated on May 17, 2024)
The Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares ETF price fell by -0.246% on the last day (Friday, 17th May 2024) from $12.19 to $12.16. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.415% from a day low at $12.16 to a day high of $12.21. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -3.18% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -1 million shares and in total, 1 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $13.95 million.
The ETF is at the lower part of a horizontal trend in the short term, and normally this may pose a good buying opportunity, though a breakdown through the bottom trend line at $12.08 will give a strong sell signal and a trend shift may be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $11.96 and $12.75 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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SPDN Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, May 15, 2024, and so far it has risen 0.165%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $12.26 and $12.49. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
A buy signal from a double bottom formation was found on Wednesday, May 15, 2024 and based on theory for this formation the price should go up by 12.24% to $13.65 within 38 trading days since signal was issued (Monday, May 20, 2024).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares ETF
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares finds support from accumulated volume at $12.14 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.0505 between high and low, or 0.415%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.636%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (SPDN) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 20th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 20th we expect Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares to open at $12.18, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $12.04 and $12.28, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.118 (+/-0.97%) up or down from last closing price. If Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.94% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $12.14 (0.16%) than the resistance at $12.41 (2.06%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares ETF A Buy?
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares holds several negative signals and is within a falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.
Current score: -1.805 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares of Monday, May 20, 2024
| Fair opening price May 20, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $12.18 ( 0.138%) | $12.16 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for SPDN
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 12.23 | 0.554 % | |
| R2 | 12.21 | 0.395 % | ||
| R1 | 12.20 | 0.297 % | ||
| Current price: | 12.16 | |||
| Support | S1 | 12.16 | -0.0202 % | |
| S2 | 12.15 | -0.118 % | ||
| S3 | 12.13 | -0.277 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 12.78 | 5.10 % | |
| R2 | 12.67 | 4.19 % | ||
| R1 | 12.41 | 2.06 % | ||
| Current price | 12.16 | |||
| Support | S1 | 12.14 | -0.164% | |
| S2 | 0 | . | ||
| S3 | 0 | . |
SPDN Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan 18, 2024 | Mar 19, 2024 | Mar 26, 2024 | $0.140 | 1.14% |
| 2 | Dec 21, 2023 | Dec 21, 2023 | Dec 21, 2023 | $0.212 | 1.59% |
| 3 | Mar 23, 2023 | Sep 19, 2023 | Sep 26, 2023 | $0.205 | 1.38% |
| 4 | Mar 23, 2023 | Jun 21, 2023 | Jun 28, 2023 | $0.265 | 1.83% |
| 5 | Mar 20, 2023 | Mar 21, 2023 | Mar 28, 2023 | $0.0940 | 0.587% |
FAQ
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