Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF upgraded to Buy Candidate.
(Updated on May 23, 2024)
The Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF price fell by -1.25% on the last day (Thursday, 23rd May 2024) from $104.17 to $102.87. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.93% from a day low at $102.65 to a day high of $104.63. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -0.22% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -106 thousand shares and in total, 234 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $24.03 million.
The ETF is moving within a horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $99.47 and $106.92 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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SPGP Signals & Forecast
The Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $104.22. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $102.77. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, May 15, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.78%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF
Invesco S&P 500 GARP finds support from accumulated volume at $101.52 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $1.98 between high and low, or 1.93%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.83%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $98.81 (-3.94%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 16 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (SPGP) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 24th
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 24th we expect Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF to open at $103.38, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $101.81 and $103.93, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.06 (+/-1.03%) up or down from last closing price. If Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.06% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $103.10 (0.22%) than the support at $101.52 (1.31%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF ETF A Buy?
Several short-term signals are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity, as there is a fair chance for Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF to perform well in the short-term period. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 1.139 Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF of Friday, May 24, 2024
| Fair opening price May 24, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $103.38 ( 0.499%) | $102.87 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for SPGP
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 105.36 | 2.42 % | |
| R2 | 104.61 | 1.69 % | ||
| R1 | 104.14 | 1.23 % | ||
| Current price: | 102.87 | |||
| Support | S1 | 102.63 | -0.236 % | |
| S2 | 102.16 | -0.690 % | ||
| S3 | 101.40 | -1.43 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 105.64 | 2.69 % | |
| R2 | 105.23 | 2.29 % | ||
| R1 | 103.10 | 0.224 % | ||
| Current price | 102.87 | |||
| Support | S1 | 101.52 | -1.31% | |
| S2 | 101.05 | -1.77% | ||
| S3 | 100.57 | -2.24% |
SPGP Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 18, 2024 | Mar 18, 2024 | Mar 22, 2024 | $0.382 | 0.363% |
| 2 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 18, 2023 | Dec 18, 2023 | $0.403 | 0.414% |
| 3 | Jan 02, 2023 | Sep 18, 2023 | Sep 22, 2023 | $0.340 | 0.376% |
| 4 | Jan 02, 2023 | Jun 20, 2023 | Jun 23, 2023 | $0.216 | 0.247% |
| 5 | Jan 02, 2023 | Mar 20, 2023 | Mar 24, 2023 | $0.256 | 0.309% |
FAQ
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