Simplify Volatility Premium ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Stronger technical forecast for Simplify Volatility Premium ETF price after Friday trading.
(Updated on May 17, 2024)
The Simplify Volatility Premium ETF price gained 0.175% on the last trading day (Friday, 17th May 2024), rising from $22.91 to $22.95. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.391% from a day low at $22.89 to a day high of $22.98. The price has risen in 8 of the last 10 days and is up by 2.05% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 209 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 796 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $18.26 million.
Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Simplify Volatility Premium ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $21.39 and $22.61 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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SVOL Signals & Forecast
Mostly positive signals in the chart today. The Simplify Volatility Premium ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $22.80 and $22.39. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Monday, April 15, 2024, and so far it has risen 5.08%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Thursday, May 02, 2024 for the short-term and also have Golden Star Signal for the medium-term dated Tuesday, May 30, 2023.
Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.
Golden Star
The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Thursday, May 02, 2024 for the short-term and also have Golden Star Signal for the medium-term dated Tuesday, May 30, 2023.Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.
Golden Star 12 Months
The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Thursday, May 02, 2024 for the short-term and also have Golden Star Signal for the medium-term dated Tuesday, May 30, 2023.Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Simplify Volatility Premium ETF
Simplify Volatility Premium finds support from accumulated volume at $22.69 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.0894 between high and low, or 0.391%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.375%.
The Simplify Volatility Premium ETF is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this may pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some ETFS may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the ETF manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stop-loss: $21.85 (-4.81%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. The RSI14 is 89 and this increases the risk substantially. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 24 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (SVOL) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 20th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 20th we expect Simplify Volatility Premium ETF to open at $22.94, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $22.81 and $23.09, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.145 (+/-0.63%) up or down from last closing price. If Simplify Volatility Premium ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.26% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
With no resistance above and support from accumulated volume @ $22.69, some $0.260 (1.13%) from the current price of $22.95, our system finds the risk reward attractive.
Is Simplify Volatility Premium ETF ETF A Buy?
Several short-term signals are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity, as there is a fair chance for Simplify Volatility Premium ETF to perform well in the short-term period. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 2.507 Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Simplify Volatility Premium ETF of Monday, May 20, 2024
| Fair opening price May 20, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $22.94 ( 0.0444%) | $22.95 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for SVOL
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 23.03 | 0.345 % | |
| R2 | 23.00 | 0.196 % | ||
| R1 | 22.97 | 0.104 % | ||
| Current price: | 22.95 | |||
| Support | S1 | 22.91 | -0.193 % | |
| S2 | 22.88 | -0.285 % | ||
| S3 | 22.85 | -0.434 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 0 | . | |
| R2 | 0 | . | ||
| R1 | 0 | . | ||
| Current price | 22.95 | |||
| Support | S1 | 22.69 | -1.13% | |
| S2 | 22.65 | -1.31% | ||
| S3 | 21.84 | -4.84% |
SVOL Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan 12, 2024 | Apr 25, 2024 | Apr 30, 2024 | $0.300 | 1.35% |
| 2 | Jan 12, 2024 | Mar 25, 2024 | Mar 28, 2024 | $0.300 | 1.32% |
| 3 | Jan 12, 2024 | Feb 26, 2024 | Feb 29, 2024 | $0.300 | 1.32% |
| 4 | Jan 12, 2024 | Jan 26, 2024 | Jan 31, 2024 | $0.300 | 1.32% |
| 5 | Dec 26, 2023 | Dec 26, 2023 | Dec 26, 2023 | $0.308 | 1.36% |
FAQ
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