Telefonica S.a Stock Forecast

Sell candidate since Nov 06, 2025 Loss -8.01%

The Telefonica S.A. stock price fell by -10.83% on the last day (Monday, 17th Nov 2025) from $4.51 to $4.02. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 11.79% from a day low at $4.02 to a day high of $4.49. The price has fallen in 5 of the last 10 days and is down by -18.08% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -637 shares and in total, 148 shares were bought and sold for approximately $594.96 .

The stock has broken the wide and falling short-term trend down. Firstly a stronger fallrate is indicated, but false breaks and "sell-off" may occur. However, a further fall is realistic and any reactions back to the breaking point ($4.34) are considered to be a "second chance" to get out. According to the fan-theory $3.39 will represent the new bottom line of the next trend, but it is far too early to say this for certain.

TEFOF Signals & Forecast

There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The Telefonica S.A. stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $4.36 and $5.03. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, October 22, 2025, and so far it has fallen -27.67%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell along with the price during the last trading day which is technical positive. One should, however, note that this stock may have low liquidity in periods, which increases the general risk. The very low volume increases the risk and reduces the other technical signals issued.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Telefonica S.A. stock

There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the stock may perform very badly in the next couple of days.

This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with periodic low trading volume this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.474 between high and low, or 11.79%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 5.60%.

Telefonica S.A. is oversold on RSI14 (15). Some stocks may fall long and hard while being oversold on RSI, but stocks that are heavily oversold on RSI often pose good re-bounce chance and played well it can be a buy candidate.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (TEFOF) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 18th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 18th we expect Telefonica S.A. to open at $4.18, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $3.93 and $4.11, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.188 (+/-4.78%) up or down from last closing price. If Telefonica S.A. takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.78% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

With no support below and resistance from accumulated volume @ $4.51, some $0.488 (12.14%) from the current price of $4.02, our system finds the risk reward not very attractive.

Dividend Warning For TEFOF

Dividend coming up for TEFOF: Ex-dividend date (Tuesday 16th December, 2025) is 27 days away. The dividend is $0.130.

Is Telefonica S.A. stock A Buy?

Telefonica S.A. holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Strong Sell candidate.

Current score: -6.237 Strong Sell Candidate Downgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on November 18, 2025 - $4.18 ( 3.93%).

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