Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF upgraded from Strong Sell Candidate to Sell Candidate after Friday trading session.
(Updated on Apr 26, 2024)
The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF price gained 1.57% on the last trading day (Friday, 26th Apr 2024), rising from $43.29 to $43.97. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.52% from a day low at $43.83 to a day high of $44.50. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -7.35% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -3 million shares and in total, 3 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $144.80 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The ETF lies in the lower of a wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $43.10 is broken, it will firstly indicate a stronger fall rate. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -18.63% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $35.07 and $41.76 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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TMF Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, April 25, 2024, and so far it has risen 1.57%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $44.63 and $49.99. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X finds support from accumulated volume at $43.29 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This ETF may move much during the day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this ETF is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the ETF moved $0.665 between high and low, or 1.52%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 2.15%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (TMF) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 29th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 29th we expect Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares to open at $44.10, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $42.40 and $45.54, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.57 (+/-3.56%) up or down from last closing price. If Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 7.12% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $43.29 (1.55%) than the resistance at $45.25 (2.91%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF A Buy?
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Strong Sell to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -3.869 Sell Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares of Monday, April 29, 2024
| Fair opening price April 29, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $44.10 ( 0.292%) | $43.97 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for TMF
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 44.76 | 1.80 % | |
| R2 | 44.51 | 1.23 % | ||
| R1 | 44.35 | 0.87 % | ||
| Current price: | 43.97 | |||
| Support | S1 | 43.84 | -0.286 % | |
| S2 | 43.69 | -0.643 % | ||
| S3 | 43.43 | -1.22 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 54.63 | 24.24 % | |
| R2 | 47.46 | 7.94 % | ||
| R1 | 45.25 | 2.91 % | ||
| Current price | 43.97 | |||
| Support | S1 | 43.29 | -1.55% | |
| S2 | 0 | . | ||
| S3 | 0 | . |
TMF Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan 18, 2024 | Mar 19, 2024 | Mar 26, 2024 | $0.320 | 0.600% |
| 2 | Dec 21, 2023 | Dec 21, 2023 | Dec 21, 2023 | $1.00 | 1.53% |
| 3 | Feb 08, 2023 | Sep 19, 2023 | Sep 26, 2023 | $0.0500 | 0.103% |
| 4 | Feb 08, 2023 | Jun 21, 2023 | Jun 28, 2023 | $0.0480 | 0.0602% |
| 5 | Feb 08, 2023 | Mar 21, 2023 | Mar 28, 2023 | $0.0350 | 0.0414% |
FAQ
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