Toll Brothers Inc Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Toll Brothers Inc stock price ended at $119.52 on Wednesday, after gaining 0.344%.
(Updated on May 01, 2024)
The Toll Brothers Inc stock price gained 0.344% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 1st May 2024), rising from $119.11 to $119.52. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 4.67% from a day low at $117.94 to a day high of $123.45. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 5.38% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 671 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 1 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $154.23 million.
The stock lies in the middle of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 16.93% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $134.24 and $160.00 at the end of this 3-month period.
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TOL Signals & Forecast
Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Toll Brothers Inc stock holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $121.22. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $119.43. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, March 28, 2024, and so far it has fallen -7.61%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Toll Brothers Inc stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $107.64 and $105.43. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Toll Brothers Inc finds support just below today's level at $107.64. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $105.43 and $103.55.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $5.51 between high and low, or 4.67%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.81%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (TOL) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 2nd
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 2nd we expect Toll Brothers Inc to open at $120.30, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $115.81 and $123.23, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$3.71 (+/-3.11%) up or down from last closing price. If Toll Brothers Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 6.21% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $120.22 (0.59%) than the support at $107.64 (9.94%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Toll Brothers Inc stock A Buy?
Toll Brothers Inc holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this stock.
Current score: -1.513 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Toll Brothers Inc of Thursday, May 2, 2024
| Fair opening price May 2, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $120.30 ( 0.655%) | $119.52 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for TOL
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 125.81 | 5.27 % | |
| R2 | 123.71 | 3.50 % | ||
| R1 | 122.41 | 2.42 % | ||
| Current price: | 119.52 | |||
| Support | S1 | 118.20 | -1.11 % | |
| S2 | 116.90 | -2.19 % | ||
| S3 | 114.79 | -3.95 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 122.17 | 2.22 % | |
| R2 | 120.31 | 0.661 % | ||
| R1 | 120.22 | 0.586 % | ||
| Current price | 119.52 | |||
| Support | S1 | 107.64 | -9.94% | |
| S2 | 105.43 | -11.79% | ||
| S3 | 103.55 | -13.36% |
TOL Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apr 04, 2024 | Apr 04, 2024 | Apr 04, 2024 | $0 | 0% |
| 2 | Dec 13, 2023 | Jan 11, 2024 | Jan 26, 2024 | $0.210 | 0.213% |
| 3 | Sep 19, 2023 | Oct 05, 2023 | Oct 20, 2023 | $0.210 | 0.306% |
| 4 | Jun 13, 2023 | Jul 06, 2023 | Jul 21, 2023 | $0.210 | 0.267% |
| 5 | Mar 09, 2023 | Apr 05, 2023 | Apr 21, 2023 | $0.210 | 0.340% |
FAQ
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