Toll Brothers Stock Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Jul 09, 2026 Gain 1.69%

The Toll Brothers Inc stock price fell by -3.24% on the last day (Friday, 17th Jul 2026) from $155.81 to $150.76. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 4.69% from a day low at $150.45 to a day high of $157.51. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -4.06% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -395 thousand shares and in total, 588 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $88.60 million.

The stock lies in the middle of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 12.49% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $153.46 and $189.96 at the end of this 3-month period.

TOL Signals & Forecast

The Toll Brothers Inc stock holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $151.17. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $149.61. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, July 08, 2026, and so far it has risen 3.57%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Toll Brothers Inc stock

Toll Brothers Inc finds support from accumulated volume at $149.66 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $7.06 between high and low, or 4.69%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.10%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $142.60 (-5.41%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 7 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (TOL) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 20th

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 20th we expect Toll Brothers Inc to open at $152.91, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $148.26 and $153.26, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$5.00 (+/-3.38%) up or down from last closing price. If Toll Brothers Inc takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.38% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $149.66 (0.73%) than the resistance at $151.92 (0.77%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Is Toll Brothers Inc stock A Buy?

Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for Toll Brothers Inc stock to perform well in the short-term. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Strong Buy to a Buy candidate.

Current score: 3.529 Buy Candidate Downgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 20, 2026 - $152.91 ( 1.42%).

Want to trade but not sure how? Our step-by-step guide can help.
Skip the guide? Open account with our trusted broker*
*Your capital is at risk