Taiwan Semiconductor Stock Forecast

Hold candidate since Aug 10, 2026

The Taiwan Semiconductor stock price fell by -0.374% on the last day (Monday, 10th Aug 2026) from $420.04 to $418.47. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.38% from a day low at $416.00 to a day high of $425.88. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 4.86% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 3 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 12 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $4.92 billion.

The stock is moving within a very wide and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Taiwan Semiconductor stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $372.54 and $474.19 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.

TSM Signals & Forecast

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, July 29, 2026, and so far it has risen 11.69%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Taiwan Semiconductor stock holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $423.43. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $414.03. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Taiwan Semiconductor stock

Taiwan Semiconductor finds support from accumulated volume at $409.74 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $9.88 between high and low, or 2.38%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.86%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $405.66 (-3.06%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 8 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (TSM) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 11th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 11th we expect Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd to open at $420.12, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $410.17 and $426.77, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$16.60 (+/-4.05%) up or down from last closing price. If Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.05% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $409.74 (2.09%) than the resistance at $427.92 (2.26%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Dividend Warning For TSM

Dividend coming up for TSM: Ex-dividend date (Wednesday 16th September, 2026) is 35 days away. The dividend is $1.11.

Is Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd stock A Buy?

Taiwan Semiconductor holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold candidate.

Current score: 0.689 Hold/Accumulate Upgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on August 11, 2026 - $420.12 ( 0.393%).

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