ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
A very red day for ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF price after a -5.50% fall in the Wednesday trading session
(Updated on May 01, 2024)
The ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF price fell by -5.50% on the last day (Wednesday, 1st May 2024) from $32.92 to $31.11. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 6.16% from a day low at $30.96 to a day high of $32.87. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -7.22% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 644 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $73.24 million.
Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 25.38% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $39.01 and $46.20 at the end of this 3-month period.
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UCO Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $33.38 and $33.48. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, April 15, 2024, and so far it has fallen -12.07%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF
On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $28.78 and $26.69. There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil finds support just below today's level at $28.78. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $26.69 and $26.15.
This ETF has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the ETF moved $1.91 between high and low, or 6.16%. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 3.51%.
ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil is oversold on RSI14 (21). Some ETFS may drop long and hard while being oversold on RSI before turning, which increases the general risk.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (UCO) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 2nd
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 2nd we expect ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil to open at $31.65, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $30.08 and $32.14, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.03 (+/-3.33%) up or down from last closing price. If ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 6.65% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $28.78 (7.49%) than the resistance at $33.53 (7.78%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF A Buy?
The ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil ETF holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.
Current score: -2.259 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil of Thursday, May 2, 2024
Fair opening price May 2, 2024 | Current price |
---|---|
$31.65 ( 1.73%) | $31.11 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for UCO
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 33.56 | 7.86 % | |
R2 | 32.83 | 5.52 % | ||
R1 | 32.38 | 4.07 % | ||
Current price: | 31.11 | |||
Support | S1 | 30.92 | -0.616 % | |
S2 | 30.47 | -2.06 % | ||
S3 | 29.74 | -4.41 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Resistance | R3 | 35.38 | 13.73 % | |
R2 | 35.26 | 13.34 % | ||
R1 | 33.53 | 7.78 % | ||
Current price | 31.11 | |||
Support | S1 | 28.78 | -7.49% | |
S2 | 26.69 | -14.21% | ||
S3 | 26.15 | -15.94% |
FAQ
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