United States Oil Fund, LP ETF Forecast
United States Oil Fund, LP ETF price down 3.13% on Wednesday
(Updated on May 01, 2024)
The United States Oil Fund, LP ETF price fell by -3.13% on the last day (Wednesday, 1st May 2024) from $78.38 to $75.93. It has now fallen 4 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 3.44% from a day low at $75.77 to a day high of $78.38. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -3.78% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 2 million shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 6 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $450.36 million.
Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 15.90% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $88.01 and $99.53 at the end of this 3-month period.
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USO Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The United States Oil Fund, LP ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $79.18 and $79.25. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, April 05, 2024, and so far it has fallen -7.85%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for United States Oil Fund, LP ETF
United States Oil Fund, LP finds support from accumulated volume at $73.62 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $2.61 between high and low, or 3.44%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 2.01%.
United States Oil Fund, LP is oversold on RSI14 (22). Some ETFS may drop long and hard while being oversold on RSI before turning, which increases the general risk.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (USO) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 2nd
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 2nd we expect United States Oil Fund, LP to open at $76.69, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $74.41 and $77.45, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.52 (+/-2.00%) up or down from last closing price. If United States Oil Fund, LP takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.00% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $73.62 (3.04%) than the resistance at $78.78 (3.75%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is United States Oil Fund, LP ETF A Buy?
The United States Oil Fund, LP ETF holds several negative signals and despite the positive trend, we believe United States Oil Fund, LP will perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. Therefore, we hold a negative evaluation of this ETF.
Current score: -2.164 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for United States Oil Fund, LP of Thursday, May 2, 2024
| Fair opening price May 2, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $76.69 ( 1.01%) | $75.93 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for USO
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 79.30 | 4.44 % | |
| R2 | 78.31 | 3.13 % | ||
| R1 | 77.69 | 2.32 % | ||
| Current price: | 75.93 | |||
| Support | S1 | 75.70 | -0.308 % | |
| S2 | 75.08 | -1.12 % | ||
| S3 | 74.08 | -2.43 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 81.65 | 7.53 % | |
| R2 | 81.53 | 7.38 % | ||
| R1 | 78.78 | 3.75 % | ||
| Current price | 75.93 | |||
| Support | S1 | 73.62 | -3.04% | |
| S2 | 73.35 | -3.40% | ||
| S3 | 71.52 | -5.81% |
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