Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF Forecast

Buy candidate since Jan 21, 2025

The Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF price gained 0.102% on the last trading day (Tuesday, 21st Jan 2025), rising from $78.13 to $78.21. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.0896% from a day low at $78.15 to a day high of $78.22. The price has risen in 5 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.28% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -2 million shares and in total, 3 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $211.26 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The ETF is moving within a narrow and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $77.12 and $77.87 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETF seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETF turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners. Do note, that if the ETF price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

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VCSH Signals & Forecast

Mostly positive signals in the chart today. The Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the ETF, but the ETF has a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $77.98 and $78.18. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Monday, January 13, 2025, and so far it has risen 0.656%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely. The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Thursday, January 16, 2025 for the short-term and also have Golden Star Signal for the medium-term dated Friday, May 31, 2024.

Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF

Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond finds support from accumulated volume at $78.13 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.0700 between high and low, or 0.0896%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.117%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $72.88 (-6.81%) (This ETF has very low daily movements and this gives very low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 5 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (VCSH) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 22nd

For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 22nd we expect Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF to open at $78.19, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $78.05 and $78.37, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.157 (+/-0.20%) up or down from last closing price. If Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.40% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $78.13 (0.10%) than the resistance at $78.42 (0.27%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Is Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF ETF A Buy?

Several short-term signals are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity, as there is a fair chance for Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF to perform well in the short-term period. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Buy candidate.

Current score: 1.149 Buy Candidate Upgraded

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Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on January 22, 2025 - $78.19 ( 0.0213%).