Vanguard Diversified Conservative Index ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Red day on Wednesday for Vanguard Diversified Conservative Index
(Updated on Jun 26, 2024)
The Vanguard Diversified Conservative Index ETF price fell by -0.346% on the last day (Wednesday, 26th Jun 2024) from A$52.04 to A$51.86. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.386% from a day low at A$51.81 to a day high of A$52.01. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.56% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 4 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 11 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately A$584.41 thousand.
The ETF is moving within a narrow and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Vanguard Diversified Conservative Index ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between A$51.69 and A$52.74 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETFS seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETFS turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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VDCO.AX Signals & Forecast
The Vanguard Diversified Conservative Index ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately A$51.92. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately A$51.62. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Tuesday, June 25, 2024, and so far it has fallen -0.346%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Vanguard Diversified Conservative Index gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs". The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Monday, May 06, 2024 in the short-term chart.
Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.
Golden Star
The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Monday, May 06, 2024 in the short-term chart.Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.
A sell signal from a double top formation was found on Tuesday, June 25, 2024 and based on theory for this formation the price should fall by -2.70% to A$50.46 within 27 trading days since signal was issued (Thursday, August 01, 2024).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Vanguard Diversified Conservative Index ETF
Vanguard Diversified Conservative Index finds support from accumulated volume at A$51.81 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved A$0.200 between high and low, or 0.386%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.228%.
Our recommended stop-loss: A$50.39 (-2.83%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 18 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (VDCO.AX) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 27th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 27th we expect Vanguard Diversified Conservative Index ETF to open at A$51.89, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between A$51.70 and A$52.02, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-A$0.158 (+/-0.30%) up or down from last closing price. If Vanguard Diversified Conservative Index ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.61% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at A$51.90 (0.08%) than the support at A$51.81 (0.10%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Vanguard Diversified Conservative Index ETF ETF A Buy?
Several short-term signals are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity, as there is a fair chance for Vanguard Diversified Conservative Index ETF to perform well in the short-term period.
Current score: 1.122 Buy Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Vanguard Diversified Conservative Index ETF of Thursday, June 27, 2024
| Fair opening price June 27, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| A$51.89 ( 0.0643%) | A$51.86 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for VDCO.AX
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 52.09 | 0.450% |
| R2 | 52.02 | 0.303% |
| R1 | 51.97 | 0.212% |
| Price | 51.86 | |
| S1 | 51.82 | -0.0830% |
| S2 | 51.77 | -0.174% |
| S3 | 51.69 | -0.321% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 52.01 | 0.289% |
| R2 | 51.93 | 0.135% |
| R1 | 51.90 | 0.0771% |
| Price | 51.86 | |
| S1 | 51.81 | -0.0964% |
| S2 | 51.79 | -0.135% |
| S3 | 51.29 | -1.10% |
VDCO Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apr 02, 2024 | Apr 02, 2024 | Apr 17, 2024 | A$0.158 | 0.312% |
| 2 | Jan 02, 2024 | Jan 02, 2024 | Jan 02, 2024 | A$0.118 | 0.233% |
| 3 | Oct 02, 2023 | Oct 02, 2023 | Oct 02, 2023 | A$0.243 | 0.503% |
| 4 | Jul 03, 2023 | Jul 03, 2023 | Jul 03, 2023 | A$0.168 | 0.342% |
| 5 | Apr 03, 2023 | Apr 03, 2023 | Apr 03, 2023 | A$0.112 | 0.228% |
FAQ
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