Vanguard Intermediate -Term Government ETF Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Vanguard Intermediate -Term Government ETF downgraded to Sell Candidate
(Updated on May 06, 2024)
The Vanguard Intermediate -Term Government ETF price gained 0.0520% on the last trading day (Monday, 6th May 2024), rising from $57.66 to $57.69. It has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.149% from a day low at $57.63 to a day high of $57.72. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.68% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 287 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $106.77 million.
The ETF lies in the middle of a narrow and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -2.37% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $55.63 and $56.64 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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VGIT Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, April 25, 2024, and so far it has risen 0.96%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Vanguard Intermediate -Term Government ETF holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the ETF giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $57.74. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the short-term average at $57.39. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Vanguard Intermediate -Term Government ETF
Vanguard Intermediate -Term Government finds support from accumulated volume at $57.39 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.0858 between high and low, or 0.149%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.329%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (VGIT) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 7th
For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 7th we expect Vanguard Intermediate -Term Government Bond ETF to open at $57.68, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $57.47 and $57.91, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.221 (+/-0.38%) up or down from last closing price. If Vanguard Intermediate -Term Government Bond ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.77% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $57.39 (0.52%) than the resistance at $58.15 (0.80%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Vanguard Intermediate -Term Government Bond ETF ETF A Buy?
Vanguard Intermediate -Term Government holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We, therefore, hold a negative evaluation of this ETF. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -2.031 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Vanguard Intermediate -Term Government Bond ETF of Tuesday, May 7, 2024
| Fair opening price May 7, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $57.68 ( 0.0149%) | $57.69 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for VGIT
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 57.77 | 0.134 % | |
| R2 | 57.73 | 0.0770 % | ||
| R1 | 57.71 | 0.0419 % | ||
| Current price: | 57.69 | |||
| Support | S1 | 57.65 | -0.0717 % | |
| S2 | 57.63 | -0.107 % | ||
| S3 | 57.60 | -0.164 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 58.30 | 1.06 % | |
| R2 | 58.23 | 0.94 % | ||
| R1 | 58.15 | 0.797 % | ||
| Current price | 57.69 | |||
| Support | S1 | 57.39 | -0.520% | |
| S2 | 57.34 | -0.607% | ||
| S3 | 57.30 | -0.676% |
VGIT Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apr 29, 2024 | May 01, 2024 | May 06, 2024 | $0.174 | 0.301% |
| 2 | Mar 27, 2024 | Apr 01, 2024 | Apr 04, 2024 | $0.176 | 0.303% |
| 3 | Feb 28, 2024 | Mar 01, 2024 | Mar 06, 2024 | $0.150 | 0.255% |
| 4 | Jan 30, 2024 | Feb 01, 2024 | Feb 06, 2024 | $0.167 | 0.285% |
| 5 | Dec 20, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 28, 2023 | $0.167 | 0.282% |
FAQ
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