Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF Forecast
Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF upgraded to Hold/Accumulate.
(Updated on Jul 02, 2024)
The Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF price gained 0.690% on the last trading day (Tuesday, 2nd Jul 2024), rising from $56.52 to $56.91. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.724% from a day low at $56.62 to a day high of $57.03. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days but is still down by -3.08% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -786 thousand shares and in total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $121.40 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The ETF lies in the lower part of a weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $56.56 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 3.95% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $58.79 and $62.01 at the end of this 3-month period.
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VGLT Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Monday, July 01, 2024, and so far it has risen 0.690%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $58.05 and $57.79. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF
Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond finds support from accumulated volume at $56.38 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.410 between high and low, or 0.724%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.89%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $53.79 (-5.48%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 11 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (VGLT) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 3rd
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 3rd we expect Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF to open at $56.85, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $56.27 and $57.55, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.636 (+/-1.12%) up or down from last closing price. If Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.23% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $56.38 (0.93%) than the resistance at $57.70 (1.39%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF ETF A Buy?
Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.558 Hold/Accumulate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Vanguard Long-Term Government Bond ETF of Wednesday, July 3, 2024
| Fair opening price July 3, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $56.85 ( 0.0996%) | $56.91 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for VGLT
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 57.26 | 0.621% |
| R2 | 57.11 | 0.346% |
| R1 | 57.01 | 0.176% |
| Price | 56.91 | |
| S1 | 56.70 | -0.375% |
| S2 | 56.60 | -0.545% |
| S3 | 56.44 | -0.82% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 58.07 | 2.04% |
| R2 | 57.84 | 1.63% |
| R1 | 57.70 | 1.39% |
| Price | 56.91 | |
| S1 | 56.38 | -0.93% |
| S2 | 55.96 | -1.67% |
| S3 | 55.86 | -1.85% |
VGLT Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apr 29, 2024 | May 01, 2024 | May 06, 2024 | $0.193 | 0.341% |
| 2 | Mar 27, 2024 | Apr 01, 2024 | Apr 04, 2024 | $0.200 | 0.344% |
| 3 | Feb 28, 2024 | Mar 01, 2024 | Mar 06, 2024 | $0.176 | 0.293% |
| 4 | Jan 30, 2024 | Feb 01, 2024 | Feb 06, 2024 | $0.188 | 0.316% |
| 5 | Dec 20, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 28, 2023 | $0.190 | 0.306% |
FAQ
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