Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF Forecast
Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF upgraded to Buy Candidate.
(Updated on Jul 02, 2024)
The Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF price gained 0.245% on the last trading day (Tuesday, 2nd Jul 2024), rising from $44.90 to $45.01. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.323% from a day low at $44.95 to a day high of $45.10. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -1.23% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -2 million shares and in total, 1 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $46.12 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The ETF lies in the lower part of a narrow and weak rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at $44.92 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 2.43% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $46.01 and $47.12 at the end of this 3-month period.
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VMBS Signals & Forecast
The Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $45.41 and $45.26. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some positive signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Monday, July 01, 2024, and so far it has risen 0.245%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF
Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities finds support from accumulated volume at $44.97 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.145 between high and low, or 0.323%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.517%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $42.52 (-5.54%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 7 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (VMBS) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 3rd
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 3rd we expect Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF to open at $45.02, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $44.76 and $45.26, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.250 (+/-0.55%) up or down from last closing price. If Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.11% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $44.97 (0.09%) than the resistance at $45.06 (0.11%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF ETF A Buy?
Several of the signals/indicators are negative, and we believe that this will affect on the development for the next days and maybe possible weeks. However, over time, we think that today's level holds a possible buying opportunity and that the price will be higher during or at the end of this 3-month period. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 1.699 Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF of Wednesday, July 3, 2024
| Fair opening price July 3, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $45.02 ( 0.0185%) | $45.01 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for VMBS
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 45.16 | 0.341% |
| R2 | 45.11 | 0.218% |
| R1 | 45.07 | 0.142% |
| Price | 45.01 | |
| S1 | 44.96 | -0.105% |
| S2 | 44.93 | -0.181% |
| S3 | 44.87 | -0.304% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |
|---|---|---|
| R3 | 45.57 | 1.24% |
| R2 | 45.16 | 0.333% |
| R1 | 45.06 | 0.111% |
| Price | 45.01 | |
| S1 | 44.97 | -0.0889% |
| S2 | 44.90 | -0.244% |
| S3 | 44.73 | -0.622% |
VMBS Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Apr 29, 2024 | May 01, 2024 | May 06, 2024 | $0.148 | 0.331% |
| 2 | Mar 27, 2024 | Apr 01, 2024 | Apr 04, 2024 | $0.146 | 0.323% |
| 3 | Feb 28, 2024 | Mar 01, 2024 | Mar 06, 2024 | $0.145 | 0.319% |
| 4 | Jan 30, 2024 | Feb 01, 2024 | Feb 06, 2024 | $0.143 | 0.314% |
| 5 | Dec 20, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 28, 2023 | $0.142 | 0.306% |
FAQ
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