Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF Forecast
Red day on Wednesday for Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities
(Updated on May 08, 2024)
The Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF price fell by -0.156% on the last day (Wednesday, 8th May 2024) from $44.89 to $44.82. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.262% from a day low at $44.73 to a day high of $44.85. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 1.01% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 232 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 1 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $53.33 million.
The ETF lies in the middle of a narrow and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -2.43% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $42.79 and $44.12 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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VMBS Signals & Forecast
The Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock, but the ETF has a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $44.60 and $44.82. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, April 16, 2024, and so far it has risen 1.52%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the ETF should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF
Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities finds support from accumulated volume at $44.73 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.117 between high and low, or 0.262%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.395%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $42.77 (-4.58%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 16 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (VMBS) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 9th
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 9th we expect Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF to open at $44.80, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $44.57 and $45.07, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.248 (+/-0.55%) up or down from last closing price. If Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.11% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $44.73 (0.20%) than the resistance at $44.98 (0.36%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF ETF A Buy?
Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.
Current score: -0.018 Hold/Accumulate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF of Thursday, May 9, 2024
| Fair opening price May 9, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $44.80 ( 0.0466%) | $44.82 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for VMBS
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 44.92 | 0.215 % | |
| R2 | 44.87 | 0.115 % | ||
| R1 | 44.84 | 0.0535 % | ||
| Current price: | 44.82 | |||
| Support | S1 | 44.75 | -0.147 % | |
| S2 | 44.73 | -0.208 % | ||
| S3 | 44.68 | -0.308 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 45.41 | 1.32 % | |
| R2 | 45.16 | 0.759 % | ||
| R1 | 44.98 | 0.357 % | ||
| Current price | 44.82 | |||
| Support | S1 | 44.73 | -0.201% | |
| S2 | 44.54 | -0.625% | ||
| S3 | 44.22 | -1.34% |
VMBS Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mar 27, 2024 | Apr 01, 2024 | Apr 04, 2024 | $0.146 | 0.323% |
| 2 | Feb 28, 2024 | Mar 01, 2024 | Mar 06, 2024 | $0.145 | 0.319% |
| 3 | Jan 30, 2024 | Feb 01, 2024 | Feb 06, 2024 | $0.143 | 0.314% |
| 4 | Dec 20, 2023 | Dec 22, 2023 | Dec 28, 2023 | $0.142 | 0.306% |
| 5 | Nov 29, 2023 | Dec 01, 2023 | Dec 06, 2023 | $0.141 | 0.310% |
FAQ
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