Vanguard Emerging Markets Government ETF Forecast

Hold candidate since Apr 17, 2025

The Vanguard Emerging Markets Government ETF price gained 0.271% on the last trading day (Thursday, 17th Apr 2025), rising from $62.74 to $62.91. It has now gained 5 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.239% from a day low at $62.87 to a day high of $63.02. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days but is still down by -1.18% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 194 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 546 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $34.33 million.

The ETF lies in the middle of a narrow and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to fall -2.11% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $60.04 and $63.01 at the end of this 3-month period.

VWOB Signals & Forecast

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, April 08, 2025, and so far it has risen 2.29%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Vanguard Emerging Markets Government ETF holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the ETF giving a more negative forecast for the ETF. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $63.76. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the short-term average at $62.49. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Vanguard Emerging Markets Government ETF

Vanguard Emerging Markets Government finds support from accumulated volume at $62.90 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.150 between high and low, or 0.239%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.631%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $59.40 (-5.58%) (This ETF has very low daily movements and this gives very low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 7 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (VWOB) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 21st

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 21st we expect Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF to open at $62.93, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $62.32 and $63.50, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.587 (+/-0.93%) up or down from last closing price. If Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.87% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $62.90 (0.02%) than the resistance at $64.06 (1.83%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Is Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF ETF A Buy?

Vanguard Emerging Markets Government holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.

Current score: -0.868 Hold/Accumulate Upgraded

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Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on April 21, 2025 - $62.93 ( 0.0318%).