Xau/jpy Currency Pair Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Aug 27, 2025 Gain 25.42%

The XAU/JPY currency pair price fell by -0.500% on the last day (Monday, 17th Nov 2025) from JP¥631,336.00 to JP¥628,180.00. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the currency pair fluctuated 2.02% from a day low at JP¥622,142.00 to a day high of JP¥634,732.00. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a 1.8% gain for the last 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the currency pair, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the currency pair. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -71 thousand shares and in total, 501 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately JP¥314.52 billion.

The currency pair lies in the lower part of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good buying opportunity. If the lower trend floor at JP¥623,819.63 is broken, it will firstly indicate a slower rate of rising, but may also be an early warning for a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the currency pair is expected to rise 29.91% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between JP¥810,373.28 and JP¥909,285.15 at the end of this 3-month period.

XAUJPY Signals & Forecast

The XAU/JPY currency pair holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the currency pair giving a positive forecast for the currency pair. On further gains, the currency pair will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately JP¥633,993.29. On a fall, the currency pair will find some support from the long-term average at approximately JP¥620,249.77. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, October 20, 2025, and so far it has fallen -4.30%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for XAU/JPY currency pair

XAU/JPY finds support from accumulated volume at JP¥608,704.00 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This currency pair has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the currency pair moved JP¥12,590.00 between high and low, or 2.02%. For the last week, the currency pair has had daily average volatility of 2.72%.

Our recommended stop-loss: JP¥604,686.07 (-3.74%) (This currency pair has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 20 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (XAUJPY) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 18th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 18th we expect XAU/JPY to open at JP¥628,351.33, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between JP¥620,519.04 and JP¥635,840.96, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-JP¥15,321.93 (+/-2.47%) up or down from last closing price. If XAU/JPY takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.47% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at JP¥631,336.00 (0.50%) than the support at JP¥608,704.00 (3.10%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is XAU/JPY currency pair A Buy?

Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for XAU/JPY currency pair to perform well in the short-term. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this currency pair since the last evaluation from a Hold to a Buy candidate.

Current score: 2.596 Buy Candidate Upgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on November 18, 2025 - JP¥628,351.33 ( 0.0273%).

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