XAU/USD Currency Pair Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
![Bollinger Bottleneck Buy Pattern 1](https://stockinvest.us/assets/img/legend/boll_tight.gif?v=e286bd2437919596200b642acbe7c45175aa9cf4)
![Bollinger Bottleneck Buy Pattern 2](https://stockinvest.us/assets/img/legend/boll_tight2.gif?v=e286bd2437919596200b642acbe7c45175aa9cf4)
![Bollinger Bottleneck Sell Pattern](https://stockinvest.us/assets/img/legend/boll_tight3.gif?v=e286bd2437919596200b642acbe7c45175aa9cf4)
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Weaker technical forecast for XAU/USD as currency pair downgraded to Hold/Accumulate.
(Updated on Jun 28, 2024)
The XAU/USD currency pair price fell by -0.0142% on the last day (Friday, 28th Jun 2024) from $2,325.50 to $2,325.17. During the last trading day the currency pair fluctuated 0.89% from a day low at $2,318.97 to a day high of $2,339.63. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -0.29% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day by 13 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 324 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $753.99 million.
The currency pair is moving within a horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect XAU/USD currency pair with a 90% probability to be traded between $2,298.56 and $2,437.66 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and currency pairs seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Currency pairs turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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XAUUSD Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, June 07, 2024, and so far it has risen 1.36%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The XAU/USD currency pair holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the currency pair giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the currency pair will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $2,343.14. On a fall, the currency pair will find some support from the short-term average at $2,324.76. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the currency pair should be followed more closely. The currency pair had a Golden Star Signal on Saturday, July 29, 2023 in the long-term chart.
Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the currency pair in question.
Golden Star 12 Months
The currency pair had a Golden Star Signal on Saturday, July 29, 2023 in the long-term chart.Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the currency pair in question.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for XAU/USD currency pair
XAU/USD finds support from accumulated volume at $2,322.22 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the currency pair tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the currency pair moved $20.66 between high and low, or 0.89%. For the last week the currency pair has had daily average volatility of 1.01%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $2,217.07 (-4.65%) (This currency pair has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 30 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (XAUUSD) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 1st
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 1st we expect XAU/USD to open at $2,327.92, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $2,298.72 and $2,351.62, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$26.45 (+/-1.14%) up or down from last closing price. If XAU/USD takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.27% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $2,322.22 (0.13%) than the resistance at $2,330.25 (0.22%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is XAU/USD currency pair A Buy?
XAU/USD holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this currency pair since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: -0.471 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for XAU/USD of Monday, July 1, 2024
Fair opening price July 1, 2024 | Current price |
---|---|
$2,327.92 ( 0.118%) | $2,325.17 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for XAUUSD
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |
---|---|---|
R3 | 2,348.58 | 1.01% |
R2 | 2,340.69 | 0.668% |
R1 | 2,335.82 | 0.458% |
Price | 2,325.17 | |
S1 | 2,320.03 | -0.221% |
S2 | 2,315.16 | -0.431% |
S3 | 2,307.26 | -0.770% |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
Level | Price | |
---|---|---|
R3 | 2,358.91 | 1.45% |
R2 | 2,332.01 | 0.294% |
R1 | 2,330.25 | 0.218% |
Price | 2,325.17 | |
S1 | 2,322.22 | -0.127% |
S2 | 2,303.23 | -0.94% |
S3 | 2,297.84 | -1.18% |
FAQ
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