Xcel Brands Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
Red day on Wednesday for Xcel Brands stock after losing 1.33%
(Updated on May 01, 2024)
The Xcel Brands stock price fell by -1.33% on the last day (Wednesday, 1st May 2024) from $0.750 to $0.740. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.53% from a day low at $0.732 to a day high of $0.750. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days but is still up by 1.37% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -6 thousand shares and in total, 7 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $4.95 thousand.
The stock lies the upper part of a very wide and falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $0.771 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -34.97% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $0.396 and $0.502 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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XELB Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, April 18, 2024, and so far it has risen 10.45%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Xcel Brands stock holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the stock giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $0.782. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the short-term average at $0.718. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell along with the price during the last trading day which is technical positive. One should, however, note that this stock may have low liquidity in periods, which increases the general risk. The very low volume increases the risk and reduces the other technical signals issued.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Xcel Brands stock
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $0.700 and $0.698. There is a natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Xcel Brands finds support just below today's level at $0.700. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $0.698 and $0.670.
This stock may move much during the day (volatility) and with periodic low trading volume this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.0185 between high and low, or 2.53%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 7.73%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $0.710 (-4.06%) (This stock has high daily movements and this gives high risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 9 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (XELB) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 2nd
For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 2nd we expect Xcel Brands to open at $0.741, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $0.678 and $0.80, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.0625 (+/-8.44%) up or down from last closing price. If Xcel Brands takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 16.89% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $0.746 (0.74%) than the support at $0.700 (5.41%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Xcel Brands stock A Buy?
Xcel Brands holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development.
Current score: -0.511 Hold/Accumulate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Xcel Brands of Thursday, May 2, 2024
| Fair opening price May 2, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $0.741 ( 0.0676%) | $0.740 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for XELB
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 0.759 | 2.57 % | |
| R2 | 0.752 | 1.61 % | ||
| R1 | 0.748 | 1.02 % | ||
| Current price: | 0.740 | |||
| Support | S1 | 0.733 | -0.89 % | |
| S2 | 0.729 | -1.48 % | ||
| S3 | 0.722 | -2.43 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 0.88 | 18.92 % | |
| R2 | 0.753 | 1.76 % | ||
| R1 | 0.746 | 0.743 % | ||
| Current price | 0.740 | |||
| Support | S1 | 0.700 | -5.41% | |
| S2 | 0.698 | -5.68% | ||
| S3 | 0.670 | -9.46% |
FAQ
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