The Financial Select Sector Spdr Fund The Financial Select Sector Spdr Fund ETF Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Jun 26, 2026 Gain 4.74%

The THE FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND ETF price gained 0.125% on the last trading day (Tuesday, 21st Jul 2026), rising from $56.04 to $56.11. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.10% from a day low at $55.72 to a day high of $56.34. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.11% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -12 million shares and in total, 25 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $1.41 billion. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.

The ETF lies in the middle of a strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 10.27% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $59.16 and $62.87 at the end of this 3-month period.

XLF Signals & Forecast

The THE FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the ETF. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $56.28. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $54.14. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The ETF should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, July 16, 2026, and so far it has fallen -1.13%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Tuesday, June 02, 2026 for the short-term and also have Golden Star Signal for the medium-term dated Friday, November 07, 2025.

Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for THE FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND ETF

On the downside, the ETF finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $51.58 and $51.42. There is a natural risk involved when a ETF is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the ETF then may fall to the next support level. In this case, THE FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND finds support just below today's level at $51.58. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $51.42 and $51.10.

This ETF is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.615 (1.10%) between high and low. For the last week, the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.07%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $54.16 (-3.48%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 3 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (XLF) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 22nd

For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 22nd we expect THE FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND THE FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND to open at $56.06, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $55.75 and $56.47, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.721 (+/-1.29%) up or down from last closing price. If THE FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND THE FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 1.29% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $56.18 (0.12%) than the support at $51.58 (8.07%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is THE FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND THE FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND ETF A Buy?

THE FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold candidate.

Current score: 0.866 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on July 22, 2026 - $56.06 ( 0.0980%).

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