AMERISAFE Stock Forecast
Explanation to Bollinger's Bands
Bollinger Bands was created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s, its purpose is to define price action relative to the assets highs and lows. This technical indicator is used to identify buy and sell signals and has proven very well in doing so.
Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. StockInvest.us uses Bollingers suggested 20 day average.
Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation
BandWidth defines the current width of the band.
%b defines the current position within the band.
BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)
Live Samples:
Bottlenecks in bandwidth indicate an upcoming change. Break up through the moving average line or continuous movements above the moving average line indicate a break up, and vice versa.
Source: http://www.bollingerbands.com
High volatility in AMERISAFE stock price on Thursday which ended trading at $45.82
(Updated on Apr 25, 2024)
The AMERISAFE stock price fell by -10.02% on the last day (Thursday, 25th Apr 2024) from $50.92 to $45.82. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 11.42% from a day low at $44.88 to a day high of $50.01. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days but is still down by -3.58% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 191 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 287 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $13.15 million.
Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -2.32% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $44.76 and $51.41 at the end of this 3-month period.
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AMSF Signals & Forecast
Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The AMERISAFE stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $49.76 and $49.66. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday, March 06, 2024, and so far it has fallen -14.08%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for AMERISAFE stock
There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the stock may perform very badly in the next couple of days.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $5.13 between high and low, or 11.42%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 3.53%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (AMSF) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 26th
For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 26th we expect AMERISAFE to open at $46.90, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $44.59 and $47.05, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.23 (+/-2.67%) up or down from last closing price. If AMERISAFE takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.35% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
With no support below and resistance from accumulated volume @ $49.39, some $3.57 (7.79%) from the current price of $45.82, our system finds the risk reward not very attractive.
Is AMERISAFE stock A Buy?
AMERISAFE holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -4.387 Sell Candidate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for AMERISAFE of Friday, April 26, 2024
| Fair opening price April 26, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $46.90 ( 2.36%) | $45.82 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for AMSF
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 52.03 | 13.55 % | |
| R2 | 50.07 | 9.27 % | ||
| R1 | 48.86 | 6.63 % | ||
| Current price: | 45.82 | |||
| Support | S1 | 44.94 | -1.91 % | |
| S2 | 43.73 | -4.55 % | ||
| S3 | 41.78 | -8.82 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 50.53 | 10.28 % | |
| R2 | 49.44 | 7.90 % | ||
| R1 | 49.39 | 7.79 % | ||
| Current price | 45.82 | |||
| Support | S1 | 0 | . | |
| S2 | 0 | . | ||
| S3 | 0 | . |
AMSF Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feb 19, 2024 | Mar 07, 2024 | Mar 22, 2024 | $0.370 | 0.743% |
| 2 | Oct 24, 2023 | Nov 30, 2023 | Dec 15, 2023 | $1.36 | 2.99% |
| 3 | Jul 25, 2023 | Sep 07, 2023 | Sep 22, 2023 | $0.340 | 0.660% |
| 4 | Apr 25, 2023 | Jun 15, 2023 | Jun 23, 2023 | $0.340 | 0.651% |
| 5 | Feb 17, 2023 | Mar 09, 2023 | Mar 24, 2023 | $0.340 | 0.693% |
FAQ
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