Amerisafe Stock Forecast

Buy candidate since Nov 17, 2025

The AMERISAFE stock price fell by -0.481% on the last day (Monday, 17th Nov 2025) from $41.57 to $41.37. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.36% from a day low at $41.29 to a day high of $41.85. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.92% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -15 thousand shares and in total, 78 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $3.24 million.

The stock lies the upper part of a falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $41.67 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -14.14% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $32.92 and $35.78 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

AMSF Signals & Forecast

The AMERISAFE stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock, but the stock has a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $41.14 and $41.32. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, October 29, 2025, and so far it has risen 4.13%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for AMERISAFE stock

AMERISAFE finds support from accumulated volume at $41.30 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $0.560 between high and low, or 1.36%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.64%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $39.22 (-5.20%) (This stock has very low daily movements and this gives very low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 13 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (AMSF) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 18th

For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 18th we expect AMERISAFE to open at $41.50, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $40.95 and $41.79, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.85 (+/-2.07%) up or down from last closing price. If AMERISAFE takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.07% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $41.30 (0.17%) than the resistance at $42.14 (1.86%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Dividend Warning For AMSF

Dividend coming up for AMSF: Ex-dividend date (Friday 5th December, 2025) is 16 days away. The dividend is $1.39.

Is AMERISAFE stock A Buy?

Several short-term signals are positive, despite the stock being in a falling trend, we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for stock to perform well in the short-term. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold to a Buy candidate.

Current score: 2.273 Buy Candidate Upgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on November 18, 2025 - $41.50 ( 0.322%).

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