AMERISAFE stock downgraded from Hold/Accumulate to Sell Candidate after Friday trading session.
(Updated on Dec 03, 2021)
Sell candidate since 2021-12-03 PDF
The AMERISAFE stock price fell by -2.64% on the last day (Friday, 3rd Dec 2021) from $53.43 to $52.02. During the day the stock fluctuated 4.39% from a day low at $51.71 to a day high of $53.98. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -5.25% for this period. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -3 thousand shares and in total, 73 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $3.79 million.
Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect AMERISAFE stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $52.03 and $63.73 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
Signals & Forecast
There are few to no technical positive signals at the moment. The AMERISAFE stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $53.61 and $57.27. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, November 08, 2021, and so far it has fallen -18.36%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss
There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the stock may perform very badly in the next couple of days.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $2.27 between high and low, or 4.39%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 3.37%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold an negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Is AMERISAFE stock A Buy?
AMERISAFE holds several negative signals and is within a wide and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.
Current score: -2.218
Predicted Opening Price for AMERISAFE of Monday, December 6, 2021
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and the closing price.
|Fair opening price December 6, 2021||Current price|
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On Oct 15, 2021 "JMP Securities" gave "$75.00 - $70.00" rating for AMSF. The price target was set to $57.35+0.4%.
AMSF Insider Trading
|Aug 19, 2021||Buy||2 772||Garcia Philip A||Common stock, par value $0.01|
|Jun 11, 2021||Buy||801||Morris Jared A||Common stock, par value $0.01|
|Jun 11, 2021||Buy||801||Brown Michael J||Common stock, par value $0.01|
|Jun 11, 2021||Buy||801||Garcia Philip A||Common stock, par value $0.01|
|Jun 11, 2021||Buy||801||Fontenot Teri G.||Common stock, par value $0.01|
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