Ardelyx Forecast and Stock Analysis
Technical ARDX stock analysis for February 21, 2019.
Ardelyx fell by -3.04% in the last day from $2.63 to $2.55 The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 12.83% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased in the last day by 23 530 shares, but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly for the next couple of days. In total, 135 392 shares bought and sold for approximately $345 250.00.
Close price at the end of the last trading day (Thursday, 21st Feb 2019) of the ARDX stock was $2.55. This is 3.04% less than the trading day before Wednesday, 20th Feb 2019.
During day the stock fluctuated 4.82% from a day low at $2.49 to a day high of $2.61.
30 day high of the ARDX stock price was $2.74 and low was $1.86.
90 day high was $2.89 and low was $1.60.
52 week high for the Ardelyx - $5.90 and low - $1.60.
Ardelyx is the upper part of a very wide and horizontal trend and normally this would pose a good selling opportunity, but a break-up through the top trend line at $2.71 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift may be expected. Given the current horizontal trend you can expect Ardelyx with 90% probability to be traded between $1.61 and $2.67 at the end of this period with 90% probability. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the roof. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
There are mixed signals in the stock today. A sales signal was issued from a pivot top point on Wednesday February 20, 2019, which indicates further falls until a new bottom pivot has been found. Ardelyx gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-off's". Ardelyx holds a sales signal from the short-term moving average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the stock. On further gains, the stock will meet resistance from the short-term moving average at approximately $2.58. On a fall, the stock will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $2.27. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sales signal.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The stock holds a RSI14 at 75 and is currently being overbought on RSI. This does not have to be a sales signal as many stocks may go both long and hard while being overbought on the RSI. It is therefore important to evaluate the history of the share as it may tell you something about the RSI-sensitiveness.
Support & Resistance
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at $2.42 and $2.41.
There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, Ardelyx finds support just below today's level at $2.42. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at $2.41 and $2.33.
This stock may move much during a day (volatility) and with a large prediction interval from the Bollinger Band this stock is considered to be "high risk". During the last day, the stock moved $0.12 between high and low, or 4.82%. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 4.75%.
The stock is overbought on RSI14 and the RSI has been falling for the last couple of days. This together with the fact that the stock is in the upper part of the trend poses a possible good selling opportunity for the short-term trader. However, one should note that some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stoploss: We hold a sell evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss set.
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Evaluation: Sell Candidate
Ardelyx holds several negative signals and we believe that it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our recommendation for this stock since last evaluation from a Buy Candidate to a Sell Candidate.