First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF Forecast

Evaluation of First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF downgraded after the last trading session.
(Updated on Apr 25, 2024)

FEMS Signals & Forecast

There are mixed signals in the ETF today. The First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF holds a buy signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the ETF giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the long-term Moving Average at $38.91. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the short-term average at $38.33. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell during the last trading day while the price increased. This causes a divergence and may be considered as an early warning, but it may also not. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, April 16, 2024, and so far it has risen 1.68%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF

First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap finds support from accumulated volume at $38.55 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and therefore the general risk is considered very low. However, be aware of low or falling volume and make sure to keep an eye on the ETF During the last day, the ETF moved $0.540 between high and low, or 1.41%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.11%

Our recommended stop-loss: $36.66 (-5.16%) (This ETF has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 7 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (FEMS) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 26th

For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 26th we expect First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDEX Fund to open at $38.57, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $38.17 and $39.15, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.493 (+/-1.27%) up or down from last closing price. If First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDEX Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.55% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $38.71 (0.13%) than the support at $38.55 (0.28%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDEX Fund ETF A Buy?

First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.

Current score: 0.932 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded

Predicted Opening Price for First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDEX Fund of Friday, April 26, 2024

The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.