First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Dec 02, 2024 Gain 3.02%

The First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF price fell by -0.163% on the last day (Wednesday, 11th Dec 2024) from $40.32 to $40.25. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.82% from a day low at $39.99 to a day high of $40.32. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 3.46% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the ETF, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the ETF. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -38 shares and in total, 22 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $892.99 thousand.

The ETF is moving within a horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $37.32 and $40.17 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETF seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETF turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners. Do note, that if the ETF price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

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FEMS Signals & Forecast

The First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the ETF. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $39.97 and $39.17. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Monday, December 09, 2024, and so far it has fallen -1.73%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume fell along with the price during the last trading day, which is technical positive. One should, however, note that this ETF may have low liquidity in periods, which increases the general risk.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF

First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap finds support from accumulated volume at $39.61 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and therefore the general risk is considered very low. However, be aware of low or falling volume and make sure to keep an eye on the ETF During the last day, the ETF moved $0.328 between high and low, or 0.82%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.30%

Our recommended stop-loss: $38.54 (-4.24%) (This ETF has very low daily movements and this gives very low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 2 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (FEMS) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Thursday 12th

For the upcoming trading day on Thursday, 12th we expect First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDEX Fund to open at $40.19, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $39.62 and $40.88, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.630 (+/-1.57%) up or down from last closing price. If First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDEX Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.13% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $39.61 (1.59%) than the resistance at $40.96 (1.76%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Is First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDEX Fund ETF A Buy?

Several short-term signals are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity, as there is a fair chance for First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF to perform well in the short-term period. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy candidate.

Current score: 1.757 Buy Candidate Upgraded

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Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on December 12, 2024 - $40.19 ( 0.156%).