First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap Alphadex Fund ETF Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Jun 16, 2025 Loss -3.20%

The First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF price fell by -1.75% on the last day (Friday, 20th Jun 2025) from $40.00 to $39.30. It has now fallen 3 days in a row. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 1.45% from a day low at $39.19 to a day high of $39.76. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days but is still down by -0.98% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 9 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 15 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $598.11 thousand.

The ETF lies in the middle of a wide and strong rising trend in the short term and a further rise within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the ETF is expected to rise 13.96% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $41.76 and $47.17 at the end of this 3-month period.

FEMS Signals & Forecast

The First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF holds a sell signal from the short-term Moving Average; at the same time, however, there is a buy signal from the long-term average. Since the short-term average is above the long-term average there is a general buy signal in the ETF giving a positive forecast for the ETF. On further gains, the ETF will meet resistance from the short-term Moving Average at approximately $40.32. On a fall, the ETF will find some support from the long-term average at approximately $39.17. A break-up through the short-term average will send a buy signal, whereas a breakdown through the long-term average will send a sell signal. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday, June 12, 2025, and so far it has fallen -4.10%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap gained volume on the last day, but on falling prices. In technical terms, this is called divergence and may be an early warning. In some cases, increasing volume on falling prices may be considered positive, but that is mainly in typical "sell-offs".

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap ETF

First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap finds support from accumulated volume at $38.47 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.570 between high and low, or 1.45%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 1.21%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $37.67 (-4.15%) (This ETF has very low daily movements and this gives very low risk. There is a sell signal from a pivot top found 5 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (FEMS) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 23rd

For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 23rd we expect First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDEX Fund to open at $39.42, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $38.69 and $39.91, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.614 (+/-1.56%) up or down from last closing price. If First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDEX Fund takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.12% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $39.48 (0.46%) than the support at $38.47 (2.11%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDEX Fund ETF A Buy?

First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.

Current score: 0.998 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded

Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on June 23, 2025 - $39.42 ( 0.297%).

Want to trade but not sure how? Our step-by-step guide can help.
Skip the guide? Open account with our trusted broker*