First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap fund upgraded from Sell Candidate to Hold/Accumulate after Friday trading session.
(Updated on Dec 03, 2021)

The First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap fund price gained 0.51% on the last trading day (Friday, 3rd Dec 2021), rising from $39.91 to $40.11. , and has now gained 4 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the day the fund fluctuated 1.09% from a day low at $39.87 to a day high of $40.31. The price has been going up and down for this period, and there has been a -1.63% loss for the last 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 18 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 22 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $900.74 thousand.

The fund lies in the middle of a falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the fund is expected to fall -9.73% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $35.17 and $37.31 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

Signals & Forecast

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Friday, November 26, 2021, and so far it has risen 2.02%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap has increased volume and follows the last lift in the price. This is considered to be a technical positive sign as volume should follow the price-formation. Higher liquidity also reduces the general risk. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap fund holds a buy signal from the short-term moving average; at the same time, however, the long-term average holds a general sell signal. Since the longterm average is above the short-term average there is a general sell signal in the fund giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On further gains, the fund will meet resistance from the long-term moving average at $41.24. On a fall, the fund will find some support from the short-term average at $39.81. A break-up through the long-term average will give another buy signal, while a fall below the short-term average will add another sell signal and strengthen the general signal. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).

Support, Risk & Stop-loss

First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap finds support from accumulated volume at $39.65 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

This fund is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the fund moved $0.44 (1.09%) between high and low. For the last week, the fund has had a daily average volatility of 1.42%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $37.75 (-5.89%) (This fund has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 5 days ago.)

Is First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap AlphaDEX Fund fund A Buy?

First Trust Emerging Markets Small Cap holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this fund since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.

Current score: -0.852

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