JRVR - James River Group Holdings Tue 21'st Feb 2017
Stock analysis for Tue 21'st Feb 2017 (Updated daily)
Buy candidate since 2017-02-09
James River Group Holdings Stock Analysis
James River Group Holdings fell by -0.27% in the last day, from USD 43.89 to USD 43.77. , and has now fallen 3 day in a row The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days days and is up by 8.64% over the past 2 weeks. Volume increased in the last day by 1 254 shares, but on falling prices. This is may be an early warning and risk is increased slightly for the next couple of days. In total, 106 696 shares bought and sold for approximately USD 4.67 million.
James River Group Holdings lies in the upper part of a wide and weak rising trend in the short term, and this will normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break-up at the top trend line at USD 44.29 will firstly indicate a stronger raising rate. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to rise 6.8% during the next 3 months and, with 90% probability hold a price between USD 42.91 and USD 47.28 at the end of this period.
James River Group Holdings holds buy signals from both short- and long-term moving averages. In addition, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down there will be some support from the lines at USD 42.60 and USD 41.23. A break down below any of these levels will issue sell signals. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. A sales signal was issued from a pivot top point on Thursday February 16, 2017, which indicates further falls until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The stock holds a RSI14 at 79 and is currently being overbought on RSI. This does not have to be a sales signal as many stocks may go both long and hard while being overbought on the RSI. It is therefore important to evaluate the history of the share as it may tell you something about the RSI-sensitiveness.
Support & Resistance
On the downside, the stock finds support just below today's level from accumulated volume at USD 39.23 and USD 39.01. On the upside the stock meets some resistance just above today's level from accumulated volume at USD 43.89 and USD 44.20.
There is natural risk involved when a stock is testing a support level, since if this is broken, the stock then may fall to the next support level. In this case, James River Group Holdings finds support just below today's level at 39.23. If this is broken, then the next support from accumulated volume will be at 39.01 and 38.99. The stock is about to test the resistance from accumulated volume at USD 43.89 and this may cause the stock to take a minor break or get into a more sideways move for a few days.
This stock is usually traded at good volume, and with minor daily changes the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved USD 1.06 (2.46%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had a daily average volatility of 3.72%.
The stock is overbought on RSI14 and lies in the upper part of the trend. Normally this will pose a good selling opportunity for the short-term trader, but some stocks may go long and hard while being overbought. Regardless, the high RSI together with the trend position increases the risk and higher daily movements (volatility) should be expected. A correction down in the nearby future seems very likely and it is of great importance that the stock manages to break the trend before that occurs.
Our recommended stoploss: USD 41.72 (-4.68%) ( criteria: risk and position in trend)
Several short-term signals, along with a general good trend, are positive and we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for this stock to perform well in the short-term.