Novartis AG Stock Forecast
Novartis AG stock upgraded to Buy Candidate.
(Updated on Apr 26, 2024)
The Novartis AG stock price fell by -1.64% on the last day (Friday, 26th Apr 2024) from $99.06 to $97.44. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 0.80% from a day low at $97.44 to a day high of $98.22. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 4.19% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day along with the stock, which is actually a good sign as volume should follow the stock. On the last day, the trading volume fell by -854 thousand shares and in total, 1 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $142.39 million.
The stock lies the upper part of a falling trend in the short term, and this may normally pose a very good selling opportunity for the short-term trader as reaction back towards the lower part of the trend can be expected. A break up at the top trend line at $98.88 will firstly indicate a slower falling rate, but may be the first sign of a trend shift. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -9.97% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $82.38 and $89.02 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
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NVS Signals & Forecast
The Novartis AG stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $96.31 and $96.18. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, April 18, 2024, and so far it has risen 5.26%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Novartis AG stock
Novartis AG finds support from accumulated volume at $97.28 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $0.780 between high and low, or 0.80%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.37%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $93.17 (-4.39%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 6 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (NVS) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Monday 29th
For the upcoming trading day on Monday, 29th we expect Novartis AG to open at $97.70, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $95.91 and $98.97, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.53 (+/-1.57%) up or down from last closing price. If Novartis AG takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 3.14% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $97.28 (0.16%) than the resistance at $98.35 (0.93%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..
Is Novartis AG stock A Buy?
Several short-term signals are positive, despite the stock being in a falling trend, we conclude that the current level may hold a buying opportunity as there is a fair chance for stock to perform well in the short-term. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Buy candidate.
Current score: 1.800 Buy Candidate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Novartis AG of Monday, April 29, 2024
| Fair opening price April 29, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $97.70 ( 0.267%) | $97.44 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for NVS
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 98.48 | 1.07 % | |
| R2 | 98.18 | 0.762 % | ||
| R1 | 98.00 | 0.573 % | ||
| Current price: | 97.44 | |||
| Support | S1 | 97.40 | -0.0390 % | |
| S2 | 97.22 | -0.228 % | ||
| S3 | 96.92 | -0.534 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 103.47 | 6.19 % | |
| R2 | 99.06 | 1.66 % | ||
| R1 | 98.35 | 0.93 % | ||
| Current price | 97.44 | |||
| Support | S1 | 97.28 | -0.164% | |
| S2 | 95.73 | -1.75% | ||
| S3 | 94.41 | -3.11% |
NVS Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 24, 2024 | Sep 24, 2024 | Sep 24, 2024 | $3.78 | 3.88% |
| 2 | Mar 07, 2024 | Mar 07, 2024 | Mar 07, 2024 | $0 | 0% |
| 3 | Feb 02, 2023 | Mar 09, 2023 | Mar 20, 2023 | $3.47 | 4.39% |
| 4 | Feb 03, 2022 | Mar 08, 2022 | Mar 17, 2022 | $3.36 | 4.10% |
| 5 | Jan 27, 2021 | Mar 04, 2021 | Mar 15, 2021 | $3.38 | 4.19% |
FAQ
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