Novartis AG Stock Forecast
Red day on Tuesday for Novartis AG
(Updated on Apr 16, 2024)
The Novartis AG stock price fell by -1.28% on the last day (Tuesday, 16th Apr 2024) from $94.41 to $93.20. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 0.788% from a day low at $92.64 to a day high of $93.37. The price has fallen in 7 of the last 10 days and is down by -1.28% for this period. Volume has increased on the last day by 177 thousand shares but on falling prices. This may be an early warning and the risk will be increased slightly over the next couple of days. In total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $144.62 million.
The stock lies in the middle of a falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -12.98% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $77.79 and $83.21 at the end of this 3-month period. Do note, that if the stock price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.
NVS Signals & Forecast
Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Novartis AG stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $94.45 and $97.54. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. A sell signal was issued from a pivot top point on Friday, February 23, 2024, and so far it has fallen -10.30%. Further fall is indicated until a new bottom pivot has been found. Volume rose on falling prices yesterday. This may be an early warning and the stock should be followed more closely.
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Novartis AG stock
There is no support from accumulated volume below today's level and given the right condition the stock may perform very badly in the next couple of days.
In general the stock tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the stock moved $0.730 between high and low, or 0.788%. For the last week the stock has had daily average volatility of 1.07%.
Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.
Trading Expectations (NVS) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 17th
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 17th we expect Novartis AG to open at $93.07, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $91.83 and $94.57, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$1.37 (+/-1.47%) up or down from last closing price. If Novartis AG takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 2.93% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
With no support below and resistance from accumulated volume @ $94.41, some $1.21 (1.30%) from the current price of $93.20, our system finds the risk reward not very attractive.
Earnings coming up
Novartis AG will release earnings BMO on Tuesday, April 23, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $1.73. We will update the financials statements for Novartis AG, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 1.76% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is Novartis AG stock A Buy?
Novartis AG holds several negative signals and is within a falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this stock.
Current score: -3.301 Sell Candidate Unchanged
Predicted Opening Price for Novartis AG of Wednesday, April 17, 2024
| Fair opening price April 17, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $93.07 ( 0.139%) | $93.20 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for NVS
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 93.80 | 0.644 % | |
| R2 | 93.52 | 0.345 % | ||
| R1 | 93.35 | 0.160 % | ||
| Current price: | 93.20 | |||
| Support | S1 | 92.79 | -0.439 % | |
| S2 | 92.62 | -0.624 % | ||
| S3 | 92.34 | -0.92 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 103.47 | 11.02 % | |
| R2 | 95.73 | 2.71 % | ||
| R1 | 94.41 | 1.30 % | ||
| Current price | 93.20 | |||
| Support | S1 | 0 | . | |
| S2 | 0 | . | ||
| S3 | 0 | . |
NVS Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 24, 2024 | Sep 24, 2024 | Sep 24, 2024 | $3.78 | 4.05% |
| 2 | Mar 07, 2024 | Mar 07, 2024 | Mar 07, 2024 | $0 | 0% |
| 3 | Feb 02, 2023 | Mar 09, 2023 | Mar 20, 2023 | $3.47 | 4.39% |
| 4 | Feb 03, 2022 | Mar 08, 2022 | Mar 17, 2022 | $3.36 | 4.10% |
| 5 | Jan 27, 2021 | Mar 04, 2021 | Mar 15, 2021 | $3.38 | 4.19% |
FAQ
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