Vanguard Short-Term Government ETF Forecast

Vanguard Short-Term Government ETF downgraded from Hold/Accumulate to Sell Candidate after Thursday trading session.
(Updated on Apr 25, 2024)

VGSH Signals & Forecast

A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Wednesday, April 10, 2024, and so far it has risen 0.174%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Vanguard Short-Term Government ETF holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $57.68 and $57.86. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume fell together with the price during the last trading day and this reduces the overall risk as volume should follow the price movements. The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Monday, November 13, 2023 in the long-term chart.

Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Vanguard Short-Term Government ETF

Vanguard Short-Term Government finds support from accumulated volume at $57.63 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this stock. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.0400 between high and low, or 0.0694%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.0659%.

Our recommended stop-loss: We hold a negative evaluation for this stock. No stop-loss is set.

Trading Expectations (VGSH) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Friday 26th

For the upcoming trading day on Friday, 26th we expect Vanguard Short-Term Government ETF to open at $57.67, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $57.61 and $57.75, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.0744 (+/-0.13%) up or down from last closing price. If Vanguard Short-Term Government ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.26% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the support from accumulated volume at $57.63 (0.09%) than the resistance at $58.00 (0.55%), our systems sees the trading risk/reward intra-day as attractive and believe profit can be made before the stock reaches first resistance..

Is Vanguard Short-Term Government ETF ETF A Buy?

Vanguard Short-Term Government holds several negative signals and is within a narrow and falling trend, so we believe it will still perform weakly in the next couple of days or weeks. We therefore hold a negative evaluation of this ETF. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Hold/Accumulate to a Sell candidate.

Current score: -1.852 Sell Candidate Downgraded

Predicted Opening Price for Vanguard Short-Term Government ETF of Friday, April 26, 2024

The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.