Vanguard Short-Term Government ETF Forecast

Buy or Hold candidate since Jan 17, 2025 Gain 0.02%

The Vanguard Short-Term Government ETF price gained 0.0172% on the last trading day (Tuesday, 21st Jan 2025), rising from $58.26 to $58.27. During the last trading day the ETF fluctuated 0.0859% from a day low at $58.24 to a day high of $58.29. The price has risen in 6 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.19% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 858 thousand more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 3 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $151.57 million.

The ETFis at the upper part of a narrow and horizontal trend and normally this may pose a good selling opportunity but a break-up through the top trend line at $58.30 will give a strong buy signal and a trend shift could be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Vanguard Short-Term Government ETF with a 90% probability to be traded between $57.70 and $58.05 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and ETF seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. ETF turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners. Do note, that if the ETF price manages to stay at current levels or higher, our prediction target will start to change positively over the next few days as the conditions for the current predictions will be broken.

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VGSH Signals & Forecast

The Vanguard Short-Term Government ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the ETF, but the ETF has a general sell signal from the relation between the two signals where the long-term average is above the short-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $58.18 and $58.22. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Tuesday, December 24, 2024, and so far it has risen 0.431%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Furthermore, there is a buy signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Volume is rising along with the price. This is considered to be a good technical signal. The ETF had a Golden Star Signal on Wednesday, January 15, 2025 for the short-term and also have Golden Star Signal for the medium-term dated Wednesday, June 12, 2024.

Golden Star Signal is when the short-term moving average, the long-term moving average, and price line meet in a special combination. This combination is very rare and often followed by long and strong gains for the ETF in question.

Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Vanguard Short-Term Government ETF

Vanguard Short-Term Government finds support from accumulated volume at $58.24 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.

In general the ETF tends to have very controlled movements and with good liquidity the risk is considered very low in this ETF. During the last day, the ETF moved $0.0500 between high and low, or 0.0859%. For the last week the ETF has had daily average volatility of 0.0859%.

Our recommended stop-loss: $54.16 (-7.05%) (This ETF has very low daily movements and this gives very low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 16 days ago.)

Trading Expectations (VGSH) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 22nd

For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 22nd we expect Vanguard Short-Term Government ETF to open at $58.27, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $58.20 and $58.34, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.0684 (+/-0.12%) up or down from last closing price. If Vanguard Short-Term Government ETF takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 0.23% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.

Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $58.28 (0.02%) than the support at $58.24 (0.05%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.

Is Vanguard Short-Term Government ETF ETF A Buy?

Vanguard Short-Term Government holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this ETF since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.

Current score: 0.710 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded

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Predicted Fair Opening Price

Predicted fair opening price on January 22, 2025 - $58.27 ( 0.0057%).