Ulta Beauty Earnings Watch: $2.68B Sales, $5.11 EPS Expected

Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ: ULTA) reports Q2 results Thursday afternoon. Last quarter the company delivered $2.85 billion in sales, up 4.5% year‑over‑year, and topped revenue estimates by about 1.9% while beating on EBITDA and EPS as well. That set a high bar heading into this print.

Street expectations for this quarter call for $2.68 billion in revenue, a 4.9% increase year‑on‑year, and adjusted EPS of $5.11. Analysts have been mostly steady: the bulk of coverage kept estimates unchanged over the past 30 days. Over the last two years Ulta has missed revenue estimates only once and has beaten the top line by an average of roughly 0.4%.

Context from peers is mixed. Sally Beauty (NYSE: SBH) reported flat sales and matched forecasts; its stock jumped 21.1% after the release. Warby Parker (NYSE: WRBY) posted a 13.9% revenue gain, topping estimates by 0.7%, yet shares slipped about 3.9%. The specialty retail bucket has been a touch positive lately - up roughly 2.4% on average over the past month - while ULTA itself is up about 1.1% over the same period.

Here are the concrete market angles to keep an eye on: comp trends and membership engagement, makeup versus skin care category mix, salon visits and service recovery, gross‑margin moves tied to promotions or freight, SG&A cadence, and whether management tweaks guidance or comments on promotional intensity going into the holiday season. Capital allocation talk will matter too, any color on free cash flow, buybacks, or store investments tends to swing sentiment.

On valuation and sentiment: the consensus analyst price target sits at $545.36 versus a current share price near $525.20. That's a tight spread, which often means the stock can move on a relatively small miss or beat.

Earnings come on Thursday afternoon. Consensus numbers to watch: $2.68 billion revenue and $5.11 adjusted EPS.