Warrior Met Coal Stock Earnings Reports

Warrior reported a strong third quarter 2025 driven by operational execution and the early start-up of the Blue Creek longwall. Blue Creek longwall began operations roughly eight months ahead of plan, allowing the company to raise 2025 Blue Creek production to ~1.8 million short tons (an additional ~800k t) and increase full-year company production guidance by ~10% at the midpoint. Q3 results: record quarterly sales of 2.4 million short tons (up 27% YoY), production of 2.2 million short tons (up 17% YoY), adjusted EBITDA of $71 million (down vs. prior-year quarter but up 32% vs Q2), net income of $37 million ($0.70/diluted share), and free cash flow that was negative for the quarter (-$20 million) after $125 million of capex and development spend (including $64 million on Blue Creek). Blue Creek project capex to date is $888 million and remains on-budget with total project estimate unchanged ($995M–$1.075B). Warrior won a federal coal lease bid (~58 million short tons) adjacent to operations (approx. $47M bid payable over 5 years), which could extend Mine 4/Blue Creek life pending final lease approvals. The company highlights its low-cost positioning (FOB cash cost per ton ~ $101 in Q3), strong liquidity ($525M available at quarter end), and disciplined capital allocation: priority on dividends (fixed quarterly, potential increases), special dividends and selective buybacks when excess free cash is available. Management remains cautious on near-term metallurgical coal pricing due to oversupplied seaborne markets, Chinese export activity and subdued global steel demand, but expects Blue Creek to materially improve margins and cash generation as ramp continues into 2026. Key near-term focuses: ramp optimization at Blue Creek, completing remaining surface/barge/loadout and infrastructure by end of Q1 2026, and finalizing federal lease paperwork after the government shutdown.