Ecopetrol SA Stock Forecast
Ecopetrol SA stock upgraded to Hold/Accumulate.
(Updated on May 06, 2024)
The Ecopetrol SA stock price gained 0.607% on the last trading day (Monday, 6th May 2024), rising from $11.54 to $11.61. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 1.48% from a day low at $11.59 to a day high of $11.76. The price has risen in 5 of the last 10 days and is up by 0.35% over the past 2 weeks. Volume fell on the last day by -328 thousand shares and in total, 1 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $12.82 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock is moving within a wide and horizontal trend and further movements within this trend can be expected. Given the current horizontal trend, you can expect Ecopetrol SA stock with a 90% probability to be traded between $10.81 and $13.16 at the end of this 3-month period. A break of a horizontal trend is often followed by a large increase in the volume, and stocks seldom manage to go directly from the bottom of a trend up to the top. Stocks turning up in the middle of a horizontal trend are therefore considered to be potential runners.
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EC Signals & Forecast
A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, April 18, 2024, and so far it has risen 2.38%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. The Ecopetrol SA stock holds sell signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a more negative forecast for the stock. On corrections up, there will be some resistance from the lines at $11.67 and $11.63. A break-up above any of these levels will issue buy signals. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Ecopetrol SA stock
Ecopetrol SA finds support from accumulated volume at $11.36 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock is usually traded at a good volume, and with minor daily changes, the risk is considered to be low. During the last day, the stock moved $0.172 (1.48%) between high and low. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.16%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $11.02 (-5.06%) (This stock has low daily movements and this gives low risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 12 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (EC) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Tuesday 7th
For the upcoming trading day on Tuesday, 7th we expect Ecopetrol SA to open at $11.65, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $11.32 and $11.90, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.288 (+/-2.48%) up or down from last closing price. If Ecopetrol SA takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 4.95% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $11.70 (0.78%) than the support at $11.36 (2.15%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Earnings coming up
Ecopetrol SA will release earnings BMO on Tuesday, May 07, 2024.The consensus among the analysts for the expected earnings (EPS) is $0.600. We will update the financials statements for Ecopetrol SA, that can be found here as soon as the records are public. Our systems has calculated a possible swing of +/- 3.29% in the first trading day after earnings release.
Is Ecopetrol SA stock A Buy?
Ecopetrol SA holds several negative signals and this should be a sell candidate, but due to the general chance for a turnaround situation it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. We have upgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Sell to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: -0.584 Hold/Accumulate Upgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Ecopetrol SA of Tuesday, May 7, 2024
| Fair opening price May 7, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $11.65 ( 0.379%) | $11.61 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for EC
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 11.83 | 1.86 % | |
| R2 | 11.76 | 1.29 % | ||
| R1 | 11.72 | 0.94 % | ||
| Current price: | 11.61 | |||
| Support | S1 | 11.59 | -0.187 % | |
| S2 | 11.55 | -0.537 % | ||
| S3 | 11.48 | -1.10 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 12.13 | 4.48 % | |
| R2 | 11.84 | 1.98 % | ||
| R1 | 11.70 | 0.775 % | ||
| Current price | 11.61 | |||
| Support | S1 | 11.36 | -2.15% | |
| S2 | 11.03 | -5.00% | ||
| S3 | 10.77 | -7.24% |
EC Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 25, 2024 | Jun 25, 2024 | Jul 03, 2024 | $0.800 | 6.89% |
| 2 | Jun 24, 2024 | Jun 24, 2024 | Jul 03, 2024 | $0.800 | 6.89% |
| 3 | Mar 26, 2024 | Apr 04, 2024 | Apr 10, 2024 | $0.800 | 6.76% |
| 4 | Mar 08, 2023 | Dec 19, 2023 | Dec 29, 2023 | $0.83 | 6.96% |
| 5 | Mar 08, 2023 | Sep 26, 2023 | Dec 29, 2023 | $0.83 | 6.94% |
FAQ
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