Ecopetrol SA Stock Forecast
Ecopetrol SA stock downgraded to Hold/Accumulate
(Updated on Apr 23, 2024)
The Ecopetrol SA stock price gained 1.38% on the last trading day (Tuesday, 23rd Apr 2024), rising from $11.57 to $11.73. It has now gained 3 days in a row. It will be exciting to see whether it manages to continue gaining or take a minor break for the next few days. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 2.04% from a day low at $11.54 to a day high of $11.78. The price has fallen in 6 of the last 10 days and is down by -3.06% for this period. Volume fell on the last day by -235 thousand shares and in total, 942 thousand shares were bought and sold for approximately $11.05 million. You should take into consideration that falling volume on higher prices causes divergence and may be an early warning about possible changes over the next couple of days.
The stock lies in the middle of a wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Given the current short-term trend, the stock is expected to fall -2.57% during the next 3 months and, with a 90% probability hold a price between $10.08 and $12.48 at the end of this 3-month period.
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EC Signals & Forecast
The Ecopetrol SA stock holds buy signals from both short and long-term Moving Averages giving a positive forecast for the stock. Also, there is a general buy signal from the relation between the two signals where the short-term average is above the long-term average. On corrections down, there will be some support from the lines at $11.52 and $11.37. A breakdown below any of these levels will issue sell signals. A buy signal was issued from a pivot bottom point on Thursday, April 18, 2024, and so far it has risen 3.44%. Further rise is indicated until a new top pivot has been found. Volume fell during the last trading day despite gaining prices. This causes a divergence between volume and price and it may be an early warning. The stock should be watched closely. Some negative signals were issued as well, and these may have some influence on the near short-term development. Furthermore, there is currently a sell signal from the 3 month Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD).
Support, Risk & Stop-loss for Ecopetrol SA stock
Ecopetrol SA finds support from accumulated volume at $11.36 and this level may hold a buying opportunity as an upwards reaction can be expected when the support is being tested.
This stock has average movements during the day and with good trading volume, the risk is considered to be medium. During the last day, the stock moved $0.235 between high and low, or 2.04%. For the last week, the stock has had daily average volatility of 2.59%.
Our recommended stop-loss: $11.17 (-4.79%) (This stock has medium daily movements and this gives medium risk. There is a buy signal from a pivot bottom found 3 days ago.)
Trading Expectations (EC) For The Upcoming Trading Day Of Wednesday 24th
For the upcoming trading day on Wednesday, 24th we expect Ecopetrol SA to open at $11.68, and during the day (based on 14 day Average True Range), to move between $11.39 and $12.07, which gives a possible trading interval of +/-$0.338 (+/-2.89%) up or down from last closing price. If Ecopetrol SA takes out the full calculated possible swing range there will be an estimated 5.77% move between the lowest and the highest trading price during the day.
Since the stock is closer to the resistance from accumulated volume at $11.84 (0.94%) than the support at $11.36 (3.15%), our systems don't find the trading risk/reward intra-day attractive and any bets should be held until the stock is closer to the support level.
Is Ecopetrol SA stock A Buy?
Ecopetrol SA holds several positive signals, but we still don't find these to be enough for a buy candidate. At the current level, it should be considered as a hold candidate (hold or accumulate) in this position whilst awaiting further development. Due to some small weaknesses in the technical picture we have downgraded our analysis conclusion for this stock since the last evaluation from a Buy to a Hold/Accumulate candidate.
Current score: 0.435 Hold/Accumulate Downgraded
Predicted Opening Price for Ecopetrol SA of Wednesday, April 24, 2024
| Fair opening price April 24, 2024 | Current price |
|---|---|
| $11.68 ( 0.412%) | $11.73 |
The predicted opening price is based on yesterday's movements between high, low, and closing price.
Trading levels for EC
Fibonacci Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 11.92 | 1.59 % | |
| R2 | 11.83 | 0.83 % | ||
| R1 | 11.77 | 0.353 % | ||
| Current price: | 11.73 | |||
| Support | S1 | 11.59 | -1.18 % | |
| S2 | 11.54 | -1.65 % | ||
| S3 | 11.45 | -2.42 % |
Accumulated Volume Support & Resistance Levels
| Level | Price | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Resistance | R3 | 12.70 | 8.27 % | |
| R2 | 12.13 | 3.41 % | ||
| R1 | 11.84 | 0.94 % | ||
| Current price | 11.73 | |||
| Support | S1 | 11.36 | -3.15% | |
| S2 | 11.03 | -5.97% | ||
| S3 | 10.77 | -8.18% |
EC Dividend Payout History
| # | Ex-Date | Pay Date | Amount | Yield | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jun 25, 2024 | Jun 25, 2024 | Jul 03, 2024 | $0.800 | 6.82% |
| 2 | Jun 24, 2024 | Jun 24, 2024 | Jul 03, 2024 | $0.800 | 6.82% |
| 3 | Mar 26, 2024 | Apr 04, 2024 | Apr 10, 2024 | $0.800 | 6.76% |
| 4 | Mar 08, 2023 | Dec 19, 2023 | Dec 29, 2023 | $0.83 | 6.96% |
| 5 | Mar 08, 2023 | Sep 26, 2023 | Dec 29, 2023 | $0.83 | 6.94% |
FAQ
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